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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 5:47 p.m.

In Response To: What and more importantly why (Stick)

First I agree with whoever mentioned it was a cube before this roll. Sometimes happens when I'm playing Snowie, I click/play trying to find interesting positions without hurting myself.

Now on to the play. I was surprised looking through the game post analysis that both GNU & Snowie thought 18/17*/14 was almost a blunder trailing the best play by about .070. I looked at the choices for a minute and couldn't hammer out any good reason why it'd be that large of an error. I'm ok with the .03 range.

Return shots after 18/15 18/17*: 54, 43, 32, 52, 31, 51, 11 (13 shots)

Return shots after 18/17*/14: 42, 64, 22, 62, 21, 61, 11 (12 shots)

That would seem to argue in favor of Play B!? So what else is going on? First of all, as Neil mentioned, the 11 joker isn't as big of a joker with 18/15 18/17 because it doesn't cover the blot on White's deuce point. After that there's the 22 joker that scoops up both blots. Then the 43 that would hit after 18/17* 18/15 was a pretty fuckin' decent roll anyway anchoring up. Lastly as far as my near-sightedness can tell, the fugly 62 & 61 responses from the bar for White are truly nasty with 18/17* 18/15.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0

Move number 3: Readers to play 13

Stick	104
Readers	115
Position ID: ut0EAyCcbRvAAA Match ID: cIkMAAAAAAAA

• Readers moves 18/17* 18/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	18/17* 18/15	+0.7385
			0.7037 0.2037 0.0149 - 0.2963 0.0904 0.0035 +0.5320 +0.7385 0.0013 0.0014 0.0005 - 0.0013 0.0013 0.0002 0.0036 0.0094
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068174301 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	18/17*/14	+0.7056 ( -0.0329)
			0.6936 0.1995 0.0135 - 0.3064 0.0958 0.0029 +0.5017 +0.7056 0.0014 0.0015 0.0005 - 0.0014 0.0013 0.0003 0.0040 0.0108
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068174301 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• What and more importantly why
  Stick -- Sunday, 24 June 2007, at 11:09 p.m.
  • What and more importantly why
    Ian Dunstan -- Monday, 25 June 2007, at 7:30 a.m.
  • What and more importantly why
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 June 2007, at 5:01 p.m.
    • What and more importantly why
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 June 2007, at 2:12 p.m.
  • What and more importantly why
    neilkaz -- Monday, 25 June 2007, at 5:46 p.m.
    • What and more importantly why
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 26 June 2007, at 1:44 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 27 June 2007, at 5:47 p.m.