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Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout- correct score, and a question.

Posted By: DC-Ohio
Date: Friday, 29 June 2007, at 12:10 a.m.

In Response To: Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout (DC-Ohio)

Well, Rolling it out at the wrong score now raises a question for me. Why is the hit better at -3,-4 and the safe play better at -5,-5?

My guess: if you play it safe, the cube is almost a certainty to be turned and it is a clear take. If you take and lose, -1c/-4 is much more grim than -3/-5. By playing the hit and cover, you delay the cube by at least one shake, and have a better shot at getting back into the game.

But, if this is the case, why is the hit not the better play at normal scores?

Edjumakate me please!

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, Darin 1 (match to 5 points)

Move number 3: Darin to play 53

gnubg	134
Darin	130
Position ID: sLcNGAJtnDEABw Match ID: cImuACAACAAA

• Darin moves 11/8 11/6

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.446	(Money: -0.386)
	0.321 0.073 0.001 - 0.679 0.101 0.002
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.584
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.584
3.	Double, take	-1.460	-0.875
Proper cube action:		No double, take (35.6%)

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.058)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	8/5* 6/1	-0.751
			0.292 0.090 0.003 - 0.708 0.161 0.008 -0.507 -0.751 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.006 0.015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			829 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068103994 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	11/8 11/6	-0.808 ( -0.058)
			0.296 0.040 0.001 - 0.704 0.079 0.003 -0.458 -0.808 0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			829 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068103994 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	0	11/8 6/1	-1.000 ( -0.249)
			0.233 0.045 0.000 - 0.767 0.110 0.001
	4	0	6/3 6/1	-1.000 ( -0.249)
			0.239 0.043 0.000 - 0.761 0.115 0.001
	5	0	8/3 6/3	-1.000 ( -0.249)
			0.234 0.041 0.000 - 0.766 0.128 0.002

Messages In This Thread

• Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout
  DC-Ohio -- Thursday, 28 June 2007, at 8:13 p.m.
  • Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout
    DC-Ohio -- Thursday, 28 June 2007, at 10:52 p.m.
    • Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout
      Stick -- Thursday, 28 June 2007, at 11:16 p.m.
  • Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout- correct score, and a question.
    DC-Ohio -- Friday, 29 June 2007, at 12:10 a.m.
    • Summer Solstice position 2 Rollout- correct score, and a question.
      Mislav Radica -- Friday, 29 June 2007, at 8:38 a.m.
    • Gnubg 'fesses up
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 June 2007, at 7:54 p.m.
      • Gnubg 'fesses up
        DC-Ohio -- Friday, 29 June 2007, at 10:39 p.m.
        • Gnubg 'fesses up
          Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 June 2007, at 10:56 p.m.
          • Gnubg 'fesses up
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 30 June 2007, at 1:34 a.m.