A couple of you implied that you'd pass this for money too so I thought I'd share some reference positions that I'm sure I've posted before to help evaluate these sort of problems.
First let's start at the worst of the worst, an opening 52 split (52S) followed by your opponent luckboxing into 55 and then you dance. This position arose just last week when I played in the chouette, it was my first game before anyone besides Mary & myself got there, I need not tell you which side of the coin I was on. With two men stranded on the bar and no development it's a dead drop. Next turn Blue will be bringing down all the possible ammunition he can if he can't make a point as you struggle to enter. Though it is a drop you should note the gammons lost & your actual win % as White, at some scores it's a take!
| 164 |                       |
| 147 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.676 | |
| 0.7% 40.8% 67.4% 32.6% 8.2% 0.5% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.676 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 43021 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | 1.000 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.854 | (-0.146) |
| 3. | Double, take | 1.115 | (+0.115) |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |||
Again, 52S followed by 55 but this time you entered with a deuce. It's amazing what a difference one guy off the bar can make especially tucked away on the two point, far from the action of Blue's stacked midpoint. That single guy turns the position from DP to ND/T! The gammons drop waaaaaaaay down as it will be very tough for Blue to continue the assault since you've come in so deep in his home board. Even if all you do is come in and anchor on the two point you've more or less evened the game up. Blue's position will be overstretched and it will take some keen play for Blue to bring it home when his attack is stymied.
| 162 |   |
| 147 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.390 | |
| 0.4% 29.5% 60.1% 39.9% 10.4% 0.6% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.390 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 41905 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 1. | No double | 0.534 | |
| 2. | Double, take | 0.488 | (-0.046) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.466) |
| Proper cube action: No double, take | 9% | ||
52S followed by entering with a lone 4. You can see we've moved back in to almost a cube range (in fact it may be a cube, I need to extend this rollout) Either way it's close and the important things to note are that now Blue's stacked midpoint is closer to the action. The higher the point you come in on in this type of blitz the better it is for your opponent as he'll be able to drill you easier.
| 160 | |
| 147 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.410 | |
| 0.5% 30.1% 60.4% 39.6% 9.9% 0.5% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.410 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 41859 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 1. | No double | 0.549 | |
| 2. | Double, take | 0.531 | (-0.019) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.451) |
| Proper cube action: No double, take | 4% | ||
Following the rational above it should be obvious that if you enter a checker on the 5 pt. it's a both a double and a take.
| 159 |  |
| 147 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.452 | |
| 0.5% 31.6% 61.7% 38.3% 9.7% 0.6% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.452 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 52129 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database. | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.624 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.594 | (-0.030) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.376) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
Let's move on to another variation, the opening 52S again but this time your luckbox of an opponent tosses double 3s and you dance. The closest reference point I'd say we have so far is the 52S 55 and then we entered one on the two point wouldn't you? That was a clear ND/T so let's note what has changed here and see if we can come to a rational cube decision for both sides.
First of all your blot is on the ace point instead of the deuce point. This moves it back even further out of the way of your opponent's checker on the 8 pt. This may cause the gammons lost to come down a tad since it will be very hard for your opponent to close you out since you're so deep and he has very little wood in the zone right now. The other important difference is that your opponent again has 3 points made in his homeboard but the 3 pts he has made here are much more valuable than after the opening 55 replies. The 356 is much better off for playing out a game than the 136 which means your opponent's winning chances should skyrocket. He's 1 pt. away from having a solid 4 prime and even remaking his 8 pt. puts a major dent in your counterplay. Here your opponent isn't committed to the blitz like the 55 replies. Here he'd like to gammon you but if you anchor as you're favored to do it doesn't annihilate his position. He won't have those checkers pushed far out of play. In the 55 variations if you were to anchor on the 4 or 5 pt. he'd have 4 checkers out of play! Here you're much more likely to anchor deep in his board and all his checkers will be part of an offense trying to squeeeeeeeeeze the air out of you.
| 163 | |
| 155 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.543 | |
| 1.2% 27.8% 66.7% 33.3% 7.7% 0.3% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.543 ±0.013, - live cube no double: 0.798 ±0.023, - live cube double take: 0.845 ±0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 37140 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.843 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.770 | (-0.073) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.157) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Double, take | 0.845 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.798 | (-0.047) |
| 3. | Double, pass | 1.000 | (+0.155) |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
Now let's take the OLM position and first consider it for money. From Blue's point of view I'd look and see it mirrors a double 5s reply more than anything else but with some added advantages. The first minor improvement I see is that I have the 1-4-6 points instead of the 1-3-6 points. This has to be a plus. After that I notice I have more wood in the zone, even thought they're on the same points they definitely make a difference. Two more checkers already in the zone for ammunition, another plus.
What has changed that has Blue worse off? The obvious, White has made his bar point. It may not seem like much but it is. Any offensive improvement your opponent has made drastically changes the equity of such positions. On now to White's last remaining blot. All the examples we looked at had White's blot on the inner board where he could anchor up. Here it's in the outer board, is this better, worse, or a push for White? By feeling alone I feel White would rather have his blot deep in Blue's inner board, either the two or three point (but not the five point) By being in the outer board White can now no longer anchor up when he comes in which means even if Blue fails to pick up the extra blot his most likely continuation will be to attack the loan checker while he has you outboarded at least 3:1. Another minor factor which is closer to a push but still a negative in my mind is that when the 2nd checker of White's is hit it brings yet another builder into range for Blue.
For money you should be able to reference point your way to a standard DT.
| 152 |      |
| 137 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.5316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.8258 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.1742 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.6766 | -0.1492 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Double, take | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 978 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068456250 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
And lastly, our match. If you know even as little as I do about match play you'll realize gammons are much more valuable for me, trailing by so much, than to you (esp. once I turn the cube!) You'd like to play this game out, you do win 34% of the time, but allowing me the possibility of 4 pts. and clawing my way back into the game is way too costly. On top of that you have about ZERO recube vig since any whip to 4 on your part would leave me at -15 -1 if I drop or I take, rewhip immediately, and have the chance to be down only -7 -3 if I pull it out.
The score (after 5 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 12 (match to 15 points)
Move number 6: Stick on roll, cube decision?
| Stick | 137 |
|---|---|
| |
| Readers | 152 |
Position ID: 4NvgCUBjnsEBMA Match ID: MAHgAQAAYAAA | |
• Stick doubles
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.5592 | (Money: +0.5474) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, take | +1.1446 | +0.1446 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.8785 | -0.1215 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Double, pass | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 674 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068427384 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||