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RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 3 July 2007, at 2:08 p.m.

In Response To: RO (Stick)

The problem with SW (OK, one problem) is that it doesn't show you a cube-adjusted uncertainty. If you do live-cube it does show one, and always for the cubleless numbers. There is probably a canonical factor (which GNU-bg experimentation would find) that you can multiply the cubeless uncertainty by to get the cube-adjusted.

GNU-bg's uncertainties are pretty solid (AFAIK) except for a very small number of trials. I think 36 trials should give you an accurate uncertainty. IMO it helps to stop after a multiple of 36, until you get up to (at least) a few hundred trials, though.

I believe there are some situations where SW in particular UNDERestimates the errors. One example is the Bagai conjecture: cube rollouts comparing double+take vs. no double, because of the parallel dice + plays. The reason this is a stronger effect for SW than GNU-bg (my claim) is that GNU-bg ends its rollouts when D+P but since SW is rolling out (effectively) cubeless it doesn't stop until one side bears off 15 checkers.

Messages In This Thread

• 4th roll position
  Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 12:00 a.m.
  • 4th roll position
    Achim -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 3:26 a.m.
    • 4th roll position
      Achim -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 8:52 a.m.
      • 4th roll position
        Stick -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 8:58 a.m.
  • 4th roll position
    Ian Dunstan -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 3:37 a.m.
  • 4th roll position
    Stick -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 7:27 a.m.
  • 4th roll position
    Chase -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 8:42 a.m.
  • 4th roll position
    Misja -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 10:22 a.m.
  • 4th roll position
    Mislav Radica -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 12:05 p.m.
  • I'll post RO tonight
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 4:31 p.m.
    • I'll post RO tonight
      Stick -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 4:32 p.m.
    • OK then
      neilkaz -- Monday, 2 July 2007, at 5:16 p.m.
  • RO
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 3 July 2007, at 12:45 a.m.
    • RO
      Stick -- Tuesday, 3 July 2007, at 1:30 a.m.
      • RO
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 3 July 2007, at 2:08 p.m.