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Some more stats

Posted By: Achim
Date: Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 3:16 p.m.

In Response To: Some stats (Did I ever say that i hate maths?) (Chuck Bower)

Well ... I still did it wrong ... somehow. I took the wrong table, so you either need to divide all percentages by 2 and add to 50 or just read it here again and trust me:

gnu/jelly 5.88 100% (nearly)
gnu/snowie .69 74%
gnu/bgb 1.2 88%
bgb/jelly 2.15 98%
bgb/snowie 0.25 59.8%
snowie/jelly 4.56 100% (nearly)

Sorry in case I did confuse some people and thx for watching my progresses in statistics ;-).

Christopher Yep also mentioned some other stats regarding the all over results:

Total wins:

gnubg 1623
snowie 1557
bgb 1519
jelly 1301

equals ... 6000 (puh)

gnubg's std.err. 27.3 ---> 95% of all results will be between 1568 - 1678
snowie's std.err. 27.37 ---> 95% of all results will be between 1502 - 1612
bgb's std.err. 27.38 --->95% of all results will be between 1464 - 1574
jelly's std.err 27.1 ---> 95% of all results will be between 1246 - 1356

So the only thing we can be pretty confident of is that jellyfish is ranked 4th and gnubg is likely to be ranked 1st (if all 4 bots play against each other!).

It differs when we take only 3 bots (gnubg/snowie/bgb) into account:

gnubg 1030 wins
bgb 985 wins
snowie 985 wins

... 3000 (puh)

gnubg's std.err. 22.35 --->985 - 1075
bgb's std. err: 22.35 --->940 - 1030
snowie's std.err. 2235--->940 -1030

so no confidence at all besides that BGBlitz has reached the Olymp also. Though I don't understand bgblitz' result against jellyfish.

Ciao

Achim

PS. Don't trust my numbers, calculate it for your own ;-).

Messages In This Thread

• Big Bot Shoot-out Results
  Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 4 July 2007, at 5:06 p.m.
  • Big Bot Shoot-out Results
    Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 4 July 2007, at 5:08 p.m.
  • Big Bot Shoot-out Results
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 4 July 2007, at 5:54 p.m.
    • Big Bot Shoot-out Results
      Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 4 July 2007, at 9:28 p.m.
  • Big Bot Shoot-out Results
    Achim -- Wednesday, 4 July 2007, at 6:02 p.m.
    • Big Bot Shoot-out Results
      Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 4 July 2007, at 9:30 p.m.
  • Some stats
    Achim -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 8:55 a.m.
    • cut and paste error
      Achim -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 8:58 a.m.
    • Some stats (Did I ever say that i hate maths?)
      Achim -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 12:22 p.m.
      • Some stats (Did I ever say that i hate maths?)
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 1:28 p.m.
        • Some more stats
          Achim -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 3:16 p.m.
    • Some stats
      Frank Berger -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 6:52 p.m.
      • Some stats
        Achim -- Thursday, 5 July 2007, at 9:22 p.m.