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What's worse than going 0-3 in Novi?

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 9 July 2007, at 10:31 p.m.

In Response To: What's worse than going 0-3 in Novi? (Chuck Bower)

Interesting homework assignment.

Matt may be better than the field, but since both fields are assumed to be equal, it changes nothing to assume Matt is an average member of the field.

If an entry to the blitz is worth $30, then the equity of a blitz entry is equal to $30 times whatever the percentage return is. Let's assume it's 90% (it may be lower). So the blitz entry is worth $27.

The total prize money in the Intermediate is $2800. So you might think Matt's equity would be 1/128 of that, or $21.87. But wait! Matt's choice is not between competing in the Intermediate and throwing his match to enter the blitz; if Matt tries to win his opening match, but loses anyway, he still gets the free blitz entry.

So Matt has a 50% chance of losing his first match for $27 equity, and a 50% chance of winning the first match for (1/64 * $2800 = $43.75). The average is obviously higher than $27. (This may be a point in the analysis where it makes a difference that Matt is a favorite in a random match; but that only serves to drive the average up even higher.)

Looking at it another way, since Matt's equity from winning his first consolation match and getting into the round of 64 is higher than his equity from a free blitz entry, it must be right for him to try to win.

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