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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 11:27 a.m.

In Response To: Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match? (Stick)

Depending on the MET they need 9% to take here and barely don't have it. We redoubled, Phil mentioned he thought it was a big blunder, they took, we immediately rolled 52 and gga. I wasn't positivie of our miniscule 'doubling window' but felt there's no time like the present figuring we were above 90% to win this. They either need to hit a shot, which is very unlikely, or get back in the race, which is about the same. [two immediate unanswered big sets gets them back to an almost even race]

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 4 (match to 7 points)

Move number 5: user to play 13

gnubg	101
user	70
Position ID: rG8bACD2tmMAAA Match ID: UYnsAAAAIAAA

• user doubles

Alert: double decision marked doubtful

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8523	(Money: +0.9083)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0195	+0.0195
3.	No double	+0.9614	-0.0386
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player user owns 2-cube 0.9062 0.0946 0.0040 - 0.0938 0.0026 0.0001 +0.8523 +0.9614 Standard error 0.0014 0.0073 0.0021 - 0.0014 0.0011 0.0000 0.0028 0.0065 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.9115 0.2732 0.0061 - 0.0885 0.0026 0.0000 +1.3614 +1.0195 Standard error 0.0021 0.0214 0.0025 - 0.0021 0.0012 0.0000 0.0083 0.0164
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069210487 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
  Stick -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 5:25 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    garyo -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 6:33 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Misja -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 8:15 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Mislav Radica -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 10:56 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    bob koca -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 12:18 p.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 3:37 p.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 6:36 p.m.
    • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
      Stick -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 6:43 p.m.
      • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
        neilkaz -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 7:05 p.m.
      • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 7:34 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 11:27 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Misja -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 1:07 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 3:03 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Misja -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 6:48 p.m.
          • Rollout
            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 3:27 a.m.