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Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Misja)

The game breakdowns are cubeLESS. But the rollout is cubeFUL. We can't evaluaate and compare the game breakdowns as if they were cubeFUL. We should instead concentrate on comparing the two cubeFUL equities. Take a look at the rollout result for another, simpler position:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 3: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	8
Blue	6
Position ID: /wAAAH4AAAAAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.9614
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.9228	+0.9228
3.	No double	+1.0000	+0.0000
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.9807 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0193 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9614 +1.0000 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Player White owns 2-cube 0.9807 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0193 0.0000 0.0000 +1.9228 +1.9228 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069139013 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Since Blue has only 6 checkers left to White's 8, Blue is off in no more than 3 rolls, and White is off in 2 rolls only if he rolls doubles twice while Blue rolls none. Obviously Blue should double and White should pass.

What is Blue's cubeFUL GWC?

With the correct Double/Pass, 100%.

With Double/Take, 98.07%, since White's winning chances = 5/6*1/6*5/6*1/6 = 25/1296 = 1.93%

With No Double, again 100%, since next roll Blue will have at most 4 checkers left and White will at least 4 checkers left, and correct cube action will be Double/Pass.

But in the game breakdowns, Gnubg shows Blue winning 98.07% after both D/T and ND.

Messages In This Thread

• Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
  Stick -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 5:25 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    garyo -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 6:33 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Misja -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 8:15 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Mislav Radica -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 10:56 a.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    bob koca -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 12:18 p.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 3:37 p.m.
  • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 6:36 p.m.
    • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
      Stick -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 6:43 p.m.
      • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
        neilkaz -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 7:05 p.m.
      • Michigan Doubles Final Recube for Match?
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 9 July 2007, at 7:34 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 11:27 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Misja -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 1:07 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 3:03 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Misja -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 6:48 p.m.
          • Rollout
            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 3:27 a.m.