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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 9:15 p.m.

In Response To: Michigan - Sax cube pos. comparison (Stick)

As I thought, the match score and money are basically the same cube action. I rolled them out because occassionally I miss some aspect of the match score affecting such cube decisions. The third position with the exact same pip count, points to clear, everything except the 6 pt. is now made instead of broken is a borderline blunder to cube. In fact I bet if White is able to run one from the mid to safety next turn (a 52) and blue doesn't lose any ground in the race and doesn't hurt his board it is still a take.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, user 5 (match to 11 points)

Move number 3: gnubg to play 14

gnubg	77
user	93
Position ID: 23ZCAAPbzQwGAA Match ID: MIFwASAAKAAA

• gnubg doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4433	(Money: +0.4435)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7273
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2727
3.	No double	+0.7262	-0.0011
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7164 0.0201 0.0004 - 0.2836 0.0098 0.0001 +0.4433 +0.7262 Standard error 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 0.0011 0.0029 Player user owns 2-cube 0.7213 0.0189 0.0005 - 0.2787 0.0095 0.0001 +0.8678 +0.7273 Standard error 0.0006 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0006 0.0009 0.0000 0.0030 0.0048
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069260246 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0

Move number 3: gnubg to play 13

gnubg	77
user	93
Position ID: 23ZCAAPbzQwGAA Match ID: MIEMAAAAAAAA

• gnubg doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4419
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7076
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2924
3.	No double	+0.7005	-0.0071
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7158 0.0200 0.0004 - 0.2842 0.0099 0.0001 +0.4419 +0.7005 Standard error 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0006 0.0015 Player user owns 2-cube 0.7206 0.0184 0.0004 - 0.2794 0.0088 0.0002 +0.9018 +0.7076 Standard error 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0002 0.0000 0.0013 0.0018
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069264589 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0

Move number 3: gnubg to play 13

gnubg	77
user	93
Position ID: 27ZBAAPbzQwGAA Match ID: MIEMAAAAAAAA

• gnubg doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0837)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3201
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.6240
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3760
3.	Double, take	+0.5404	-0.0837
Proper cube action:		No double, take (18.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6634 0.0129 0.0001 - 0.3366 0.0195 0.0002 +0.3201 +0.6240 Standard error 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0012 0.0033 Player user owns 2-cube 0.6652 0.0094 0.0001 - 0.3348 0.0197 0.0002 +0.6400 +0.5404 Standard error 0.0007 0.0006 0.0000 - 0.0007 0.0008 0.0000 0.0031 0.0038
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069033364 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Michigan - Sax cube pos. comparison
  Stick -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 11:44 a.m.
  • Michigan - Sax cube pos. comparison
    Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 2:20 p.m.
  • Michigan - Sax cube pos. comparison
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 10 July 2007, at 4:51 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 9:15 p.m.