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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 13 July 2007, at 8:50 a.m.

In Response To: 4th roll (Stick)

I hit, Neil hit, both the bots preferred running. Neil referenced an opening 52S 64 where the hit has been shown to be correct. What has changed? Our board is stronger, big plus for the hit. Pip counts are basically the same when comparing both plays so that shouldn't factor in. It leaves the same amount of shots, 13, but 11 of the shots are a tad more costly since they involve stripping the midpoint. Minor argument for running. There's also the fact that 32 doesn't play all that super even though it hits, 42 should actually pass up the hit, and 52 may not play that pretty, I slash two but wouldn't swear 13/11/6* is wrong. The duplication may be what makes the plays closer than I'd have thought. Lastly, White's made bar point & threat of hemming in our two back checkers who have yet to move swings the run more still. Happy to see the hitting in the driver's seat ... for now. Plays are closer than my "at a glance analysis".

Stick	153
Readers	161
Position ID: 4NvBASSYZ/ABMA Match ID: cAkaAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/3*	-0.0812
			0.4764 0.1515 0.0057 - 0.5236 0.1517 0.0092 -0.0510 -0.0812 0.0008 0.0009 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0009 0.0003 0.0021 0.0060
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069130876 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/14	-0.0825 ( -0.0013)
			0.4822 0.1192 0.0044 - 0.5178 0.1424 0.0049 -0.0592 -0.0825 0.0007 0.0008 0.0002 - 0.0007 0.0009 0.0002 0.0018 0.0053
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1069130876 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 4th roll
  Stick -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 10:17 a.m.
  • 4th roll
    Mislav Radica -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 12:39 p.m.
  • 4th roll
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 4:27 p.m.
    • 4th roll
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 4:56 p.m.
  • 4th roll
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 July 2007, at 5:02 p.m.
  • 4th roll
    Peter G. -- Thursday, 12 July 2007, at 10:54 a.m.
  • 4th roll
    Barry Murphy -- Thursday, 12 July 2007, at 11:25 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 13 July 2007, at 8:50 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Mislav Radica -- Friday, 13 July 2007, at 12:37 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 13 July 2007, at 4:09 p.m.