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Rollout from other thread + expansion

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 18 July 2007, at 6:37 a.m.

This is the original position that arose in the chouette. Blue doubled here and everyone on White's side except me scooped. I gave serious consideration to passing noting the unmade 5 pt, huge racing deficit, and awkwardness of White's checkers. I ended up taking but wouldn't have been surprised if it turned out to be a pass. I wanted to see the effect the distribution of checkers/made or semi-made 5 pt. had on the situation as I'm trying to realize the subtleties of the game in OTB play. (it's easy to pick them out when they get posted on forums as 'problems') White is behind so far in the race I believe the effect of gained or lost pips to not have hardly any affect on the D/ND/T/P decision.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
136
92

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5184
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.9045
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0955
3.No double +0.8511 -0.0534
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.74690.05120.0004-0.25310.02630.0008 +0.5184 +0.8511
Standard error0.00090.00090.0036-0.00090.00090.0001 0.0022 0.0049
Player user owns 4-cube0.75370.04820.0005-0.24630.02680.0009 +1.0567 +0.9045
Standard error0.00110.00110.0036-0.00110.00080.0001 0.0050 0.0071
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068586314 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Here we have gained 3 pips, which again, I believe makes little difference but now have a made five pt. This turns a decent sized double into a ND. Now Blue's immediate blotting numbers could lose the game and he must play much more carefully. Best to hold off on the recube though clearing the 11 pt. loses your market, clearing the 10 does not.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
133
92

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4211
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.7364
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2636
3.Double, take +0.7206 -0.0158
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (5.7%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.71190.03370.0002-0.28810.03540.0012 +0.4211 +0.7364
Standard error0.00100.00080.0002-0.00100.00090.0001 0.0023 0.0043
Player user owns 4-cube0.72070.03050.0001-0.27930.03540.0009 +0.8717 +0.7206
Standard error0.00110.00090.0002-0.00110.00080.0001 0.0049 0.0066
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068626055 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Five point still made but White's distribution fudged a bit. Still hangs on to the ND status.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
134
92

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4328
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.7459
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2541
3.Double, take +0.7383 -0.0075
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (2.9%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.71530.03720.0004-0.28470.03440.0009 +0.4328 +0.7459
Standard error0.00100.00080.0002-0.00100.00090.0001 0.0022 0.0049
Player user owns 4-cube0.72350.03340.0002-0.27650.03420.0009 +0.8911 +0.7383
Standard error0.00110.00100.0002-0.00110.00090.0001 0.0049 0.0067
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068946700 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Same thing, checking if the distribution of checkers or loss of pip(s) mattered much, it doesn't, the made 5 still completes the solid 5 prime and turns hitters into winners.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
135
92

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4303
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.7456
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2544
3.Double, take +0.7369 -0.0088
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (3.3%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.71390.03880.0003-0.28610.03530.0011 +0.4303 +0.7456
Standard error0.00100.00080.0000-0.00100.00110.0002 0.0023 0.0044
Player user owns 4-cube0.72250.03410.0002-0.27750.03580.0012 +0.8847 +0.7369
Standard error0.00110.00090.0000-0.00110.00100.0002 0.0050 0.0065
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068953696 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Help the distribution from the original position a smidge and it changes virtually nothing. It will still take 2+ rolls in most cases to make the 5pt.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
137
92

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5071
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.8843
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1157
3.No double +0.8299 -0.0544
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.74250.05170.0003-0.25750.02880.0011 +0.5071 +0.8299
Standard error0.00090.00090.0012-0.00090.00090.0002 0.0021 0.0046
Player user owns 4-cube0.74990.04720.0006-0.25010.02940.0011 +1.0341 +0.8843
Standard error0.00110.00110.0001-0.00110.00090.0001 0.0048 0.0068
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068953664 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The middle man. The slotted five. The results are as one would expect, inbetween the made 5 pt. and the non-started 5 pt. Sometimes White will be able to hit + cover if Blue is forced to leave an immediate shot and in most scenarios White will make the 5 pt. this turn regardless.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
136
92

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4631
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.8030
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1970
3.No double +0.7838 -0.0193
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.72220.04870.0004-0.27780.02950.0010 +0.4631 +0.7838
Standard error0.00130.00110.0001-0.00130.00140.0001 0.0030 0.0059
Player user owns 4-cube0.73290.04280.0000-0.26710.03390.0008 +0.9478 +0.8030
Standard error0.00150.00130.0019-0.00150.00150.0001 0.0067 0.0085
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
731 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068985722 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

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