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3 ply for 5 away theory discussion

Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 5:18 a.m.

In Response To: matchplay cube decisions (Chuck Bower)

3 ply believes White's GWC is a bit less and the take decision is very different at 5 away compare to other scores. I do not doubt the accuracy of Chuck's rollout. However, ponder the possibility that the 3 ply analysis indicates that something significant is happening to the effective take point at 5 away.

If White's GWC was 31% with 32% gammon losses as 3 ply believes the correct decisions would be.

5 away - 7 away D/T. A .086 blunder to drop.

6 away - 7 away D/P. A .153 blunder to take.

4 away - 7 away D/P. A .063 error to take.

Money D/P. A .107 blunder to take.

Obviously, the effective take point at five away is a few points lower for this problem. Again, try to ignore the results of the rollout because it is not relevant to the theory that take points are reduced at 5 away.

Stanley

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--bBaBC-B--B-A----bbbbbbC-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in 3 ply
Player Winning Chances: 68.74% (G: 31.69% B: 3.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.26% (G: 6.61% B: 0.29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.652
Double:+1.301
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.708 (-0.206)
Double/Take:+0.914
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.086)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--bBaBC-B--B-A----bbbbbbC-:0:0:-1:00:0:1:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in 3 ply
Player Winning Chances: 68.75% (G: 31.67% B: 3.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.25% (G: 6.61% B: 0.29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.707
Double:+1.491
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.797 (-0.203)
Double/Take:+1.153 (+0.153)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--bBaBC-B--B-A----bbbbbbC-:0:0:-1:00:0:3:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in 3 ply
Player Winning Chances: 68.80% (G: 31.62% B: 3.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.20% (G: 6.60% B: 0.29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.764
Double:+1.608
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.783 (-0.217)
Double/Take:+1.063 (+0.063)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 157
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--bBaBC-B--B-A----bbbbbbC-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in 3 ply
Player Winning Chances: 68.31% (G: 32.57% B: 4.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.69% (G: 6.67% B: 0.29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.366
Double:+1.325
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.699 (-0.301)
Double/Take:+1.107 (+0.107)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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