BGonline.org Forums

Better Example of 5 Away Lower Take Point

Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Wednesday, 12 January 2011, at 5:53 a.m.

In Response To: matchplay cube decisions (Chuck Bower)

The below is a better example of how the 5 away opponent score lowers the take point.

5 away - .016 lost equity to Take (Very reasonable take)

7 away - .103 blunder to take

6 away - .185 blunder to take

4 away - .289 blunder to take

Money - .089 blunder to take

Stanley

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 60 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=-BDbCBB-B---------abbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	79.01% (G: 2.30% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.99% (G: 1.61% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.26% (G: 2.32% B: 0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.74% (G: 1.57% B: 0.04%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.586
Double:	+1.141
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.805 (-0.195)
Double/Take:	+1.016 (+0.016)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.005 (+0.801...+0.810)
Confidence Double:	± 0.008 (+1.008...+1.024)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BDbCBB-B---------abbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	79.02% (G: 2.31% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.98% (G: 1.64% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.22% (G: 2.29% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.78% (G: 1.56% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.587
Double:	+1.194
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.818 (-0.182)
Double/Take:	+1.103 (+0.103)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.004 (+0.814...+0.821)
Confidence Double:	± 0.008 (+1.095...+1.112)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 60 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-BDbCBB-B---------abbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	79.02% (G: 2.34% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.98% (G: 1.66% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.24% (G: 2.34% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.76% (G: 1.58% B: 0.04%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.593
Double:	+1.433
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.829 (-0.171)
Double/Take:	+1.289 (+0.289)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.003 (+0.826...+0.832)
Confidence Double:	± 0.009 (+1.280...+1.298)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 60 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=-BDbCBB-B---------abbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	79.00% (G: 2.32% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.00% (G: 1.64% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.23% (G: 2.30% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.77% (G: 1.59% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.590
Double:	+1.294
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.826 (-0.174)
Double/Take:	+1.185 (+0.185)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.004 (+0.823...+0.830)
Confidence Double:	± 0.009 (+1.176...+1.194)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BDbCBB-B---------abbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.93% (G: 2.15% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.07% (G: 1.67% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.21% (G: 2.31% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.79% (G: 1.59% B: 0.02%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.579
Double:	+1.182
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.820 (-0.180)
Double/Take:	+1.089 (+0.089)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.004 (+0.816...+0.824)
Confidence Double:	± 0.009 (+1.081...+1.098)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• matchplay cube decisions
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 9 January 2011, at 5:54 p.m.
  • matchplay cube decisions
    Stanley E. Richards -- Sunday, 9 January 2011, at 9:39 p.m.
    • matchplay cube decisions
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 10 January 2011, at 4:56 p.m.
      • matchplay cube decisions
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 10 January 2011, at 5:09 p.m.
        • matchplay cube decisions
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 10 January 2011, at 5:25 p.m.
          • alternate score RO's in progress *NM*
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 January 2011, at 6:12 p.m.
  • RO at -5,-7 (original position)
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 2:02 a.m.
    • RO at -4,-7
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 2:04 a.m.
      • RO at -6,-7
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 2:06 a.m.
        • RO at $-play
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 2:09 a.m.
    • RO at -5,-7 (original position)
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 12 January 2011, at 4:17 p.m.
  • 3 ply for 5 away theory discussion
    Stanley E. Richards -- Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 5:18 a.m.
    • 3 ply for 5 away theory discussion
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Better Example of 5 Away Lower Take Point
    Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 12 January 2011, at 5:53 a.m.
    • Another Example of 5 Away Lower Take Point
      Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 12 January 2011, at 5:58 a.m.