Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen In Response To: Interesting 3-2 (RolldUpTrips)
Date: Wednesday, 12 January 2011, at 4:46 p.m.
In Response To: Interesting 3-2 (RolldUpTrips)
For me this is the opposite of a next. I see more than 2 playable candidates and am far from sure about what is best here. I can understand why you would get different suggestions from different players (though 5 is a lot).
For me the main candidates are 11,10; 4p; 22,10; and possibly 2*.
While maybe not as pretty as some of the other candidates some things suggest that hitting might be best. I guess we all know the bold play criteria:
- Race deficit, better board and an anchor.
- When the opponent only has 1 back checker attacking usually trumps priming.
- The opponent has a flexible position that could quickly improve a lot if we let him play a full roll.
- the 9 dances are big, especially if we can make a 4p board.
Having said all that I am still far from sure about hitting since it does break the nice 7 point and there are other good looking plays to consider.
The first play I saw was 2 down. Nice and simple. Not too many shots while increasing the chance of improving the front structure next roll.
There's also the winner of the beauty contest which has the advantage of improving the front structure now: The pure play of simply making the 4p now. Making the 4p while leaving only 11 direct (some of which are duped) and only 1 blot has got to dominate 10,4 so I am not really going to consider that play.
I also kind of like 22,10 which takes aim at our 4p, while also fighting for an advanced anchor at a time when we are trailing in the race but have a better board. This should make it less attractive for the opponent to hit loose, noting that he hs only 1 back checker and his primary goal is to escape that rather than risk having sent another guy back. The drawback to this play is that some of the opponent's rolls dont have to hit loose because they point. Some of these are killers. And the opponent can also just run away. So maybe it's too many, too strong numbers for the opponent.
Bottom line for me is that I am not sure. I would probably end up playing 2 down simply because that was my instinct play and my instinct plays are often better than when I am overthinking things.
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