Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Interesting 3-2 (RolldUpTrips)
Date: Thursday, 13 January 2011, at 8:42 a.m.
In Response To: Interesting 3-2 (RolldUpTrips)
I want to make the 8 point for the block. 13/10 13/11 gives 3 builders for that point. 3 builders is 9 ways, if all doublets work, but here they don't, so 7 ways, but 2-2 and 3-3 play excellently also. Since 6-2 and 6-3 will hit, 2 down gives us about a 17% chance of making the 8 point next roll. It also discourages the back checker from advancing with any other rolls, although 5-2 seems to be the only one that might. We could instead slot the point with 13/8 and hope to cover with 5's if not hit, about a 26% chance. But 13/36 hitting numbers give us mostly poor chances. 24/22 13/10 seems like a reasonable play despite splitting into Opp's builders, but besides the danger of getting pointed on, we'd have few ways to make the 8 point and few ways to make the 4 point, duplicated (6's out and 2's to anchor) on the other side of the board. Another reasonable try might be 7/4 6/4, with the idea of hitting loose on the 2 point (with a 4 point board) and bringing a builder down; a fan would give us a strong position. But that gives Opp nearly as many hits as 13/8. I see also two less reasonable looking plays. There's the double split, but we're behind in the race, not yet in terrible danger of being primed, and the increased outfield coverage is probably not of much value, since there don't appear to be any numbers that Opp would use to bring 2 checkers off the midpoint, blotting with both. And the other is 7/2*, but we're one or two checkers short in the zone to hope to follow through, even if we aren't hit.
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