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BGonline.org Forums
Rollouts of Advanced Backgammon
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Rollouts of Advanced Backgammon (Mislav Radica)
Date: Saturday, 21 July 2007, at 5:18 p.m.
Sure, I'd be glad to share them with anyone who's interested. There are a few that I am not going to roll out, for instance, positions 1 and 2 (61P 41, and 64R 33) are already rolled out on Stick's site. Others like position 3 (43S 55) are clear as day. I haven't decided if I will roll out positions like 201 and 202 (prototype 5-point holding games), since those were rolled out in Kit's Backgammon Encyclopedia and are already pretty well understood. Then again, it has been awhile since his rollouts, and I wasn't thrilled with the settings he used there.
I use gnubg for all the rollouts. Full cubeful 2-ply, checkers and cube. If I do roll out the simple holding games I may do 2 rollouts, one with 2-ply checkers/cube and one with 2-ply checkers/3-ply cube. I do 1296 trials, then 2592 if it's still TCTC, then 5184. I stop at 5184 usually. Maybe I will revisit some of these with Snowie if Snowie 5 ever comes out.
It will take me 3 months minimum. Probably 6-7 months is reasonable.
Looking through it again, I am kind of surprised. Robertie's analysis seems pretty well thought out and he does try to get to the heart of the position, but there are far more solutions that are wrong than any other work on the subject (notably, Bagai's book) would lead me to believe. I would guess that 40% of the solutions are wrong in one way or another. Most are small errors, although a few are big whoppers.
Anyway, you're welcome to help, if you wish. Maybe as the project draws nearer to completion I'll ask for more people to help.
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