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BGonline.org Forums
Simple bearoff problem
Posted By: Mislav Radica In Response To: Simple bearoff problem (Stick)
Date: Monday, 23 July 2007, at 9:09 a.m.
Aggressive 3/off 2/off or safe 5/3 5/2?
Blue already turned cube so if he won gammons it would be double ones. Also with more checkers off blue has more winning chances after hit. Third there is a life after hit bcuz white's board is not so strong.
My first impulse was two off.
Let's make some counting. White has 31 pips to bear in all his checkers on 6pt and blue has total 32 pips. Very close but counting on that way is not correct bcuz there is much wastage on blue side.
Blue need 12 crossovers to bear off all checkers but white need only 8. It mean that blue need 6 rolls but white only 4 rolls.
Also white need 32 pips to save gammon. Average roll has aprox. 8 pips so white need 4 rolls to save gammon while blue need at least 6.
So it seems that white is favorite to save gammon. In addition there is big chance that blue miss to bear off in six rolls if roll some 4s or two 2s.
Question is does blue won twice times more gammons than he loses after agressive play? What is more realistic to win gammon race or scenario like this one: Blue leave shot, white hit, blue lost in the rest of the game after bear off five checkers?
61 51 41 are shot leaving numbers which is 1/6 and 11/36 is possibility that white roll ace. So 5.09% chances for that if I calculate well.But all hit's not mean lost .. bla bla
Two off, I think gammon chances are more than 10.1% but have no way to count that.
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