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Simple bearoff problem

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Monday, 23 July 2007, at 12:39 p.m.

In Response To: Simple bearoff problem (Mislav Radica)

I think gammon chances are more than 10.1% but have no way to count that.

If Blue take 2 off and White rolls and runs 8 pips, Blue will be on roll with 10 chequers to go, with White needing 24 pips to save the gammon. Whites wastage looks like about 5 pips for an epc of 29. Blue is at best 5 rolls, so his epc is 36 plus about 1, so 37. Blue is 8 effective pips down in the gammon race, about 1 roll. Therefore he probably needs working doubles to win the gammon. Right now only double 6, 5 and 3 work but that will improve. From my rusty memory, winning from a roll down is in the 9 - 12% range, and with some doubles not working it must be at the lower end of the range.

Your calculation of 5.09% hits are certainly not all wins for White. If White closes out one Blue chequer, Blue will have 5 men off, so can expect to win 22% of games. Therefore White will only win at best 3/4 of his hits, so about 4%. I can't face working out the gammon value at this score, but it looks well worthwhile taking two off.

Messages In This Thread

• Simple bearoff problem
  Stick -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 6:49 a.m.
  • Simple bearoff problem
    Ian Dunstan -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 7:22 a.m.
  • Simple bearoff problem
    Mislav Radica -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 9:09 a.m.
    • Simple bearoff problem
      Ian Shaw -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 12:39 p.m.
      • Simple bearoff problem
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:23 p.m.
  • Simple bearoff problem
    Keene -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:27 p.m.
    • Simple bearoff problem
      Keene -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:29 p.m.
  • Simple bearoff problem
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 4:49 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 5:15 p.m.