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BGonline.org Forums
Simple bearoff problem
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Simple bearoff problem (Ian Shaw)
Date: Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:23 p.m.
Blue is at best 5 rolls, so his epc is 36 plus about 1, so 37. Blue is much worse off than this. He would be at an epc of 36 if he had all his checkers on the ace point. The way things are right now, he misses with any 3, or two consecutive 2s. 22 and 11 don't save him a roll. All that adds up to a lot more than a pip of wastage. I don't know precisely how to estimate Blue's epc, but it's around 42.5 here.
Your calculation of 5.09% hits are certainly not all wins for White. If White closes out one Blue chequer, Blue will have 5 men off, so can expect to win 22% of games. Therefore White will only win at best 3/4 of his hits, so about 4%.
True, if closed out, with 5 men off, White will only win 78% of the games (for money). However, he will generally win 78% of those games on a 4 cube. Since Blue has a bare take, White's position has equity very close to 1 (2 on a 2 cube), so it makes sense to count any variation where White closes out Blue as a win. In this position, Blue has life after death because the 2 and 4 points are still open, and White may not be able to close them. Also, he will generally have 6 or more men by the time he gets hit. I'm not sure how the score changes things exactly, but it doesn't look like it's worth thinking about until that decision comes up.
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