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Simple bearoff problem

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:27 p.m.

In Response To: Simple bearoff problem (Stick)

This is a gammon race, with some stresses.

So, first of all, counting the crossovers for white - 7 in plus 1 off, thats 8 to save the gammon. Now, blue has 12 to bear off, its a little close.

Now, count the number of rolls. White is 31 pips from stacking all his outside checkers on the 6pt, taking 8 as the average die roll, thats an average of 4 rolls to get in, plus a 5th to bear off - thats a little dubious, but close enough.

So, now we have a 6 roll vs 5 roll for the gammon, all things being equal, you probably are around 32% - 35% to win the G. BUT! BUT, white hits on the long sequences (31,41,51,61) followed by an ace - or hitting number. So thats 8/36*11/36 = 88/1296, approximately 6.8%. Now we have a 6.8% risk (thats just the hit, and you still win some g's there) for a 35% chance of winning a G. Some ME work will give you a net gain of 26% if you gammon, and 13% if you win a single (2pts).

Finally we have a simple calculation to make, is it worth risking a 7/100 shot to play for a 35% gammon shot in order to gain 13% more ME? The math eludes me at this point.

Its close enough that I go for it here. Ripping two. Oh, and thats not the kind of OTB calculation I would do. I would just count the crossovers and rolls, and depending on the match score would decide whether the risk is worth it. At 0-0, its clearly GG, so yes, go for it. Leading 4-0 to seven its not.

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