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BGonline.org Forums
Simple bearoff problem
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Simple bearoff problem (Stick)
Date: Monday, 23 July 2007, at 2:35 p.m.
I used to approach these with EPCs, but that gave me problems. The way I started approaching these recently: White has 32 pips to get off the gammon, which comes to 4 average rolls. Blue has 10 crossovers to go after taking two off. Usually staying even would mean saving him a roll (e.g., if White was on the bar), but here it saves him a roll only about half the time. So Blue is off in about 5.5 rolls. Generally, I pull if Blue is within a roll after the play, and play safe otherwise, which would lead to playing safe here. I kind of like pulling though, so maybe I need a new system. In any case it looks pretty close.
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