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Tough one?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 10:29 p.m.

In Response To: Tough one? (Bryce)

Let's answer #2 first because it might help answer #1.

Ignoring the checkers on the 2-point, Blue has a five prime with White at the edge. It is almost always right (and the exceptions are are rare as hens teeth) to knock opp back from the edge of a five prime. The reason is as follows: a six die jumps the prime. If you send opp back he's only about 1/3 to get back to that spot. And then he'll need the six again. So his escaping chances go down quite a bit when you knock him off the edge.

So, back to the cube decision. You can count 16 rolls which point-on-head (PoH) leaving White pretty much dead. EVERY roll hits. So the 20 rolls that don't PoH hit loose (which is correct -- see above). In the (last) worse case opp has ~1/3 chance to hit you back and even then must still hop the prime. (He could get some help from you breaking your prime if you get stuck after he hits.)

Let's say you win 90% after PoH, 80% after hit loose and no return hit, and 50% after hit loose and return hit. (16/36)*90% + (13/36)*80% + (7/36)*50% = 78%. If White takes and recubes he will win 22% (of games and matches). If he passes he wins about 25% of matches. He's better off passing.

Note that his 22% wins (by our estimate) are something to be respected, and furthermore it's going to be hard to gammon White so playing on has a limited upside with quite a bit of downside.

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