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BGonline.org Forums
Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc. (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:06 p.m.
The accepted fully live cube take point for money is 20%. That figure for 5 away 5 away is 18%. We know the dead cube take point for money to be 25% and we can see the dead cube take point at 5 away 5 away:
- Double/Pass gives -5 -4 or 42% match equity
- Double/Take/Lose gives -5 -3 or 35% match equity
- Double/Take/Win gives -3 -5 or 65% match equity
We are risking 7% (42-35) to gain 23% (65-42). Using risk/(risk+gain) we insert the variables and get 7/(7+23) or 7/30 which is a dead cube take point of 23.3%. This is 1.7% lower than money. Now let's take a look at our possible cube vig should we take.
- Redouble/Pass gives -5 -3 or 35% match equity
- Redouble/Take/Lose gives -5 -1 Crawford or 16% match equity
- Redouble/Take/Win gives -1 -5 Crawford or 84% match equity
We are risking 19% (35-16) to gain 49% (84-35) or 19/(19+49) = 19/68 or a dead cube take point of 28% on our recubes. This means our cube vig if we take is more powerful at 5 away 5 away than it is for money. Also of minor significance but worth mentioning anyway is our take point of an 8 cube is low, 16%, meaning our opponent's recube vig should he take a 4 cube is greatly diminished.
As has already been mentioned here the failure to pay attention to minor details are what can get you in trouble in this problem. First you said both players have nice positions so you did no adjustment for wastage when it's clear that while they both have low wastage positions White, the player cubing, clearly has more wastage than Blue.
You also didn't adjust for the score which as shown is pretty big in this case.
I hate 8-9-12. I use the Keith count for most medium/long races and Trice for EPC positions. Earlier in the linked article you can see how 8-9-12 compares to most other racing formulas.
Stick
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