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BGonline.org Forums
Kleinman
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc. (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Monday, 31 January 2011, at 11:42 p.m.
I don't know why the Kleinman Count doesn't get more usage. The big factor is that it calculates cubeless game winning chances (which most other formulas don't).
K = (p1 - p2 + 4)^2/(p1 + p2 - 4) = (84 - 74 + 4)^2/(84 + 74 - 4) = 196/154 = 1 + 42/154 ~ 1 + 42/153 = 1 + 14/51 ~ 1.28.
K = 1.0 ==> 76% cgwc. K = 1.4 ==> 80% cgwc. Interpolation says 78.8%.
All (so far) without any adjustment for distribution.
BTW, 8%, 9%, 12% has been replaced by 10% - 2 pips, 10% - 1 pip, 10% + 2 pips. It's not the best but it's definitely an improvment.
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