BGonline.org Forums

Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc. (christian munk-christensen)

	74
	84

My XG rolls this out as a take for money, though just a small take.

The kind of take you would expect at the point of last take according to the formulas.

But this is 1 pip worse than the point of last take (nack57 & Trice62) and 2 pips worse than 12%.

This is a pretty standard position in the medium lengthed kind of race that comes up frequently. None of my formulas handle it well.

Any formulas that do?

With only the raw count of any racing position as input? NO. And you shouldn't expect any formula to -- it's an impossible demand. The problem is that you haven't adjusted for White's greater wastage (potential loss of pips, that translates into winning percentage). Blue has a chance at a perfect or near-perfect 7-5-3 or 7-4-4 bearoff, whereas White is headed for a Woolsey wedge (5-4-3-2-1).

Ian estimated that White's bearoff is 1.5 pips worse than Blue's. I would have guessed just 1 pip, but Ian has done more work than I have on accounting for wastage.

If you first adjust for wastage, instead of 74 to 84, if you adjust White's count say 1 pip, you get 75 to 84. It is THEN you apply Nack58 (or Nack58) or Trice62, either of which works. For example, say you decide on 75 to 84 and choose to apply Nack58:

Subt 32 is 43, double is 86, nearest sqrt is 9. (And Nack57 and Trice62 each arrive at this same 9 answer as Nack58.) As the wastage-adjusted pip difference is 9, the position is determined to be a tiny take.

As a practical matter, you may find it faster to first apply your race formula (Nack58 or whatever your choice) to the raw count, and if the answer seems fairly close then estimate wastage, and if it then looks too close to call, start over by adjusting the raw count for wastage and if necessary rerunning the formula. The point is that properly estimating wastage takes longer (at least it does for me) than using the formula, and it (wastage estimation) will usually be unnecessary to bother with: it will be in the other direction half the time, and part of the remainder of the time it will just be visually obvious that it is too much or too little to cover the shortfall.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
  christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 8:39 p.m.
  • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
    Stick -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 8:52 p.m.
    • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 8:57 p.m.
      • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
        Stick -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:06 p.m.
    • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 9:08 p.m.
      • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
        Ian Shaw -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:08 p.m.
      • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
        Stick -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:38 p.m.
      • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 1:13 a.m.
  • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
    Fabrice Liardet -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 8:58 p.m.
  • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
    Philippe Michel -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
  • Nack58 and Trice62
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:11 p.m.
    • Nack58 and Trice62
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:31 p.m.
      • Nack58 and Trice62
        Stick -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:41 p.m.
      • Nack58 and Trice62
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 1:55 a.m.
    • Racing cubes in 3-point matches
      storm -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 9:03 p.m.
  • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
    christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 10:21 p.m.
  • Kleinman
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 31 January 2011, at 11:42 p.m.
    • Kleinman
      jdg -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 7:17 p.m.
  • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
    Douglas Zare -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 8:00 p.m.
    • Nack 57; 8-9-12; Trice's 62, etc.
      Taper_Mike -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 11:35 p.m.