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What would DMP Ninja do here?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:38 p.m.

In Response To: What would DMP Ninja do here? (Rich Munitz)

This is again a followup to an old thread. To recap: Rich posted the position below, and Stick, Nack, and Neil all wanted to play $ (bar/21 6/5). Casper also preferred $ while Chuck preferred D (bar/24 13/9). I preferred V (bar/21 24/23). When I said I was interested in a rollout, Stick replied:

You thought I was going to waste processor time on an early game position where myself, Neil, and Nack agreed on the right play? Ninja!

So I rolled out the position myself, 5184-game GNU 2-ply supremo. V came out slightly ahead of $. Stick responded, perhaps half-jokingly, with a 530-game XG 3-ply rollout that put $ ahead of V by 0.034 and that was, as Stick put it, "100% statsig." That was how we left things last June.

Having now purchased XG, I was curious what a 5184-game XG 3-ply rollout would show. As you can see below, the results are very similar to the GNU rollout. In particular, V comes out slightly ahead of $.

Perhaps this result will goad Stick into using some of those 14 cores to do an XG 4-ply rollout.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 1 point match pip: 166 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AdDa--aad--b-AA:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 24/23	eq: -0.088
	Player: Opponent: 45.62% (G:13.62% B:1.98%) 54.38% (G:24.85% B:3.07%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.092...-0.084) Duration: 15 hours 48 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 6/5	eq: -0.097 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 45.14% (G:13.73% B:2.13%) 54.86% (G:28.23% B:5.62%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.102...-0.092) Duration: 18 hours 50 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• What would DMP Ninja do here?
  Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 11:01 p.m.
  • What would DMP Ninja do here?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 11:43 p.m.
  • What would DMP Ninja do here?
    Stick -- Sunday, 6 June 2010, at 12:33 a.m.
  • What would DMP Ninja do here?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 June 2010, at 12:43 a.m.
  • 53P-62S-21H-41
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 6 June 2010, at 3:04 a.m.
  • What would DMP Ninja do here?
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 6 June 2010, at 5:43 a.m.
  • What would DMP Ninja do here?
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 June 2010, at 8:18 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
  • Rollout: What would DMP Ninja do here?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 2:32 a.m.
    • Rollout: What would DMP Ninja do here?
      Stick -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 3:56 a.m.
      • And Rollout
        Stick -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 4:13 a.m.
        • And Rollout
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 4:33 a.m.
          • And Rollout
            Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 5:42 a.m.
            • And Rollout
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 6:21 a.m.
              • And Rollout
                Stick -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 7:38 a.m.
  • What would DMP Ninja do here?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:38 p.m.
    • 62S-21H-41 in case Nack is interested *NM*
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
      • 53P-62S-21H-41-d
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 9:24 p.m.
    • What would DMP Ninja do here?
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 8:30 p.m.
    • What would DMP Ninja do here?
      Stick -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 1:26 a.m.