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Ok, I don't get it (RO)

Posted By: Bryce
Date: Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 3:35 p.m.

In Response To: Tough one? (Bryce)

First, playing on won the rollout, by a *very* slim margin. As Stick pointed out, I probably should've doubled anyway on the off chance that they would take.

Of more concern to me is the play. Hitting wins more games and wins 10% more gammons (while losing 6-7% more). Yet, because of the match score, it's wrong by a significant amount. How come? I think this is a big hole in my understanding of match play. Is it because, if the other player hits and gives me a takeable cube, his gammons are still worth something, while mine aren't? Also if he hits back, there's the second blot on the back of my 5-prime, leading to more gammons if he jumps.

If I had doubled him and he had erroneously taken, then we'd be playing for the match and now 6/3* is right again.

Sorry I don't know how to make my rollouts look pretty...

1. Rollout 9/8 7/5 MWC: 72.35%

0.751 0.034 0.001 - 0.249 0.006 0.000 CL 69.90% CF 72.35%

[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.01% CF 0.01%]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1

keep the first 0 1-ply moves

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 9/6 MWC: 72.34% ( -0.01%)

0.735 0.033 0.001 - 0.265 0.007 0.000 CL 69.46% CF 72.34%

[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.01% CF 0.01%]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1

keep the first 0 1-ply moves

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3. Rollout 9/7 6/5 MWC: 72.19% ( -0.16%)

0.729 0.031 0.001 - 0.271 0.008 0.000 CL 69.24% CF 72.19%

[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.01% CF 0.02%]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1

keep the first 0 1-ply moves

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4. Rollout 9/8 6/4 MWC: 72.18% ( -0.18%)

0.724 0.033 0.001 - 0.276 0.010 0.000 CL 69.13% CF 72.18%

[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.01% CF 0.02%]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1

keep the first 0 1-ply moves

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5. Rollout 6/3* MWC: 70.73% ( -1.62%)

0.767 0.139 0.002 - 0.233 0.073 0.001 CL 71.54% CF 70.73%

[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.04% CF 0.04%]

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1

keep the first 0 1-ply moves

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube analysis Rollout cubeless MWC 74.43% (Money: +0.821)

Cubeful equities:

1. No double 75.74%

2. Double, take 87.05% ( 11.30%)

3. Double, pass 75.56% ( -0.18%)

Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (1.6%) Rollout details: Centered 1-cube: 0.860 0.105 0.001 - 0.140 0.005 0.000 CL 74.43% CF 75.74% [0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.04% CF 0.04%] Player BobCatUK owns 2-cube: 0.870 0.081 0.001 - 0.130 0.004 0.000 CL 91.09% CF 87.05% [0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.05% CF 0.08%] Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1066140390 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 2 0-ply moves and up to 3 more moves within equity 0.1 keep the first 0 1-ply moves Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Tough one?
  Bryce -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 9:32 p.m.
  • Tough one?
    Stick -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 9:38 p.m.
    • Tough one?
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 10:31 p.m.
  • Tough one?
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 July 2007, at 10:29 p.m.
  • sheesh!
    garyo -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 4:59 a.m.
  • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
    Bryce -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 3:35 p.m.
    • Wow, Stick found a hen's tooth!!
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 4:59 p.m.
      • So did Matt
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 9:37 p.m.
    • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:21 p.m.
      • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:41 p.m.
        • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:56 p.m.
          • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
            bob koca -- Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 6:22 p.m.
    • Ok, I don't get it (RO)
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 August 2007, at 1:24 a.m.
      • Thanks
        Bryce -- Sunday, 26 August 2007, at 2:22 a.m.
  • $-game RO of 2-1 roll
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 26 July 2007, at 8:28 p.m.