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Ok, I don't get it (RO)

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 25 July 2007, at 5:56 p.m.

In Response To: Ok, I don't get it (RO) (Chuck Bower)

"Never" and "forever" appear to be dogmatic and overstated.

Okay, if you hit and don't get hit back, you're going to be playing on the vast majority of the time, and will in 99.99% of cases only cash this when your gammon chances are completely exhausted (did you catch that one?).

If you don't hit and opp hops you get to turn the cube about half the time (the other half you're on the receiving end).

Both of you have pretty good doubling windows and low takepoints. Blue's is 28 or 30%, right? White's is 25%. So, yes, if you hit and opp hops, about half the time you will own a 2 cube and won't be happy about it. However, you will own a 2 cube in a gammonless position, rather than a potential match-ender. The other way, my guess is if you get hit and dance, White should double immediately and Blue has a very close take where he sometimes gets gammoned. If you hit and come in, White may be able to double it anyway, although Blue has a comfortable take there.

Your point seems to be that hitting doesn't take advantage of cube equity. I suspect you are right but a bit more careful listing of the various upcoming branches would be most enlightening.

I don't know all of them really, I just didn't go into it because not hitting looked like the right cubeful play. I would have doubled before the roll, and would cash afterwards if White fails to escape (this is the main variation that happens 70% of the time). You also bring up a good point about the rollout settings.

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