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ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 27 July 2007, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon 25 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I didn't figure too many would have trouble with this, since it's a fairly common position and also appears in Bagai's book. Robertie says it's a borderline take/drop, but it's rather a borderline D/ND. I rolled this one out to significance sine it's so common, but the double is close enough that it's probably wiser to go by your opponent's tendencies. Once it got to 15k+ trials I had to post it. Doubling is the theoretically correct action, says GNU, by about .01.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 3: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	156
Blue	147
Position ID: mOfgATCwZ8MBAw Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5232
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8318
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1682
3.	No double	+0.8221	-0.0097
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6831 0.2063 0.0069 - 0.3169 0.0543 0.0018 +0.5232 +0.8221 Standard error 0.0004 0.0006 0.0002 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 0.0010 0.0028 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6879 0.2094 0.0067 - 0.3121 0.0523 0.0021 +1.0750 +0.8318 Standard error 0.0005 0.0007 0.0002 - 0.0005 0.0003 0.0001 0.0023 0.0034
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065927074 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Advanced Backgammon 25
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 1:14 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon 25
    Stick -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 1:32 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon 25
    neilkaz -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 3:15 a.m.
    • Advanced Backgammon 25
      Stick -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 3:41 a.m.
      • Advanced Backgammon 25
        neilkaz -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 3:56 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon 25
    garyo -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 5:39 a.m.
  • Bonus question:
    Klaus Evers -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 1:56 p.m.
    • Bonus question:
      neilkaz -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 4:54 p.m.
    • Bonus question:
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 8:00 p.m.
      • Bonus question:
        neilkaz -- Saturday, 28 July 2007, at 3:19 a.m.
        • Rollout at -3-5
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 28 July 2007, at 1:57 p.m.
        • Rollout at -4-4
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 28 July 2007, at 5:20 p.m.
          • Rollout at -4-4
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 28 July 2007, at 8:19 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon 25
    Caryl Stephanson -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 3:04 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon 25
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 4:01 p.m.
  • Contrived?
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 4:29 p.m.
    • Contrived?
      Stick -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 4:36 p.m.
      • Contrived?
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 7:06 p.m.
    • Contrived?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 8:08 p.m.
  • ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 July 2007, at 9:33 p.m.