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Weekly Monday Night Game

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 31 July 2007, at 5:07 p.m.

In Response To: Weekly Monday Night Game (Stick)

I see three candidates: giving up the 7-point, giving up the 8-point (hitting loose in the process), and pulling up anchor.

Note that the cube is centered -- this could make a difference.

For starters I rule out 7/1, 7/2. That doesn't improve anything, in fact making things worse. (Doubt this was argued for OtB, but we'll find out.)

From the Fram point of view, if 18/7 led to a cash when missed, you could argue strongly for it. But White will still have a lot of play, even after missing.

What does 8/2, 8/3* do? It certainly leaves White on the bar 16/36, giving Blue another roll to cover the blot (27/36). Things don't look good if White hits unless Blue responds with an immediate deuce. If White enters on the 4-point Blue is back to where he started, except worse because of one burned checker and the loss of a good blocking/landing point.

Can White double on-the-come after any of Blue's plays? I don't think so. Blue is still in the race lead and even if both sides hit White will have work to do. Is hit+hit+fan a market loser for White? Looks to me like it is, but maybe not a huge one. I think it's more likely that doubling on the come after Blue's hit is a beaver.

Suppose Blue runs 18/7, White hits and then Blue fans. That ballgame is over. So 17/36 * 25/36 Blue loses the game after White's roll. That's about 33% of the time. Compare that to 11/36 * 25/36 or ~25% of the time after Blue hits.

Finally, does either play give Blue a cube (or better yet, a cash) when things go his/her way? After running and White's miss, Blue still must get that checker around. Again s/he has some PoH rolls to go along with the racing rolls except most of those are duped. And there are some P+P rolls (like 3-1, 4-1, 5-1). Probably D+T. What about after hit+fan? Looks like a stronger cube (can you say "Gee, Mon"?) and probably a pass. So from either player's cube potential it looks like 8/2, 8/3* comes out on top.

I'm hitting and beavering.

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