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OLM Tues. July 31st

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 31 July 2007, at 5:26 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. July 31st (Stick)

We're not moving our back checker so the choices are {16/11, 16/14}, {8/3, 4/2}, and the tweener {16/11, 4/2}.

What do we gain by staying? I don't think Stick volunteers a (single) direct shot when he rolls 5-1 or 5-2. So staying for one roll doesn't do much for us on the plus-side of the ledger. The disadvantage of keeping the 16-point occurs when we roll an ace next turn (not the worst thing since it will cover the 5th point in our board), particularly after Stick improves his board.

Suppose we leave one checker on the 16-point. Will Stick hit it? He can use some aces to make the 5-point and the others {6-1, 5-1, 4-1} don't look like good hitting risks for him. So I don't think he'll hit the loner if we leave one on the 16-point.

4/2 doesn't gain a huge amount but it "puts the checker where it belongs".

16/11, 4/2. Tweener wins!

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