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I BK'd this one.

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: I BK'd this one. (Ian Dunstan)

The major decision is between hitting and not. The non-hitting play is 13/10(2), 14/8. There are three hitting plays I can see: Both have three 3's in common: 6/3*, 14/11, 13/10. The last 3 is one of {13/10, 11/8, 10/7}.

Making the 10-point is too good to pass up and 14/11 seems fine, so the decision is still down to hit vs. no-hit.

The loner on the 20-point looks too vulnerable if Blue doesn't hit. After the hit Blue might need to roll a quick 5, but even that happens at lest 11/36 and that's almost the worst case (short of the joker doublets).

Messages In This Thread

• I BK'd this one.
  Ian Dunstan -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 1:04 a.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 1:42 a.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    Caryl Stephanson -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 3:17 p.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    Caryl Stephanson -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 3:19 p.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 3:34 p.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 4:01 p.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    garyo -- Sunday, 5 August 2007, at 4:08 p.m.
  • I BK'd this one.
    Ian Dunstan -- Monday, 6 August 2007, at 7:26 a.m.
    • A couple of things
      neilkaz -- Monday, 6 August 2007, at 4:41 p.m.
      • A couple of things
        Ian Dunstan -- Tuesday, 7 August 2007, at 6:21 a.m.