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Poker: 2/5NL You make the call...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 8 August 2007, at 6:03 p.m.

In Response To: Poker: 2/5NL You make the call... (DC-Ohio)

Looks like you're guaranteed 2::1 and V1 can still throw in another ~$125 giving you 7::3. You need to win about 1/3 of the time.

I guess one side of the argument is that if you trust your opponents, then they can see that potentially a flush already exists so if they're willing to bet that much they ought to have a (very good) flush as well. Since your top Club is only the fifth best in the deck (and none of the other four are visible) you certainly hope you have the only made flush.

One possible opposing hand is a straight. No one put much in preflop so I guess some crappy holdings could have hit the straight. Three of a kind is possible.

TWO others have put in huge bets. Maybe you can beat one but can you beat BOTH? One of these people bet big after seeing the other bet big so you'd think he's going to have a hand that shows a lot of respect for a simple flush.

You have two chances to get your 2-outer straight flush. That's about 8%. (Of course you could lose to a better SF, but that bad beat story would be worth the financial cost. :)

So is there a 1/4 chance that your simple flush wins this hand? I think it's a tough call, given that the quality of poker you're up against may not be that good. I would probably have reluctantly pushed in, just hating to muck a made flush, but I can't say for sure. Besides, I'm a novice so I'm allowed to make stupid calls. You on the other hand....

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