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Bearoff cube decision

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 9 August 2007, at 5:00 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff cube decision (DC-Ohio)

According to Keith Count (http://www.bkgm.com/articles/CubeHandlingInRaces): not an initial double. I think Keith Count underestimates it a little here, because the 665 structure is significantly weaker than the 655 because White will miss on 4's and possibly 5's for a while. So maybe this is a borderline initial cube. I wouldn't redouble it, however, at least for money. The match score changes things.

White's takepoint: if he passes, he goes to -5, -3 for 35%, if he takes and wins, he goes to -1, -5 for 85%, and if he takes and loses, he goes to -5, -1 for 15%. So he risks 20% to gain 50%, or 5-to-2 odds, or about 28.5% takepoint.

Considering that White's takepoint is 3.5% higher than a money game, I would double this.

IMHO with the various counts: Don't bother with Thorp. Tried it, didn't like it. Keith is good. EPC is better (faster/more accurate), but unwieldy at times. I also kind of like Ward since it actually adjusts for things like checkers off, but for some reason I haven't memorized it. Also, some people seem to like Kleinman, but it seems way too hard to do OTB for my taste.

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