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Am I close yet?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 10 August 2007, at 6:16 p.m.

In Response To: Am I close yet? (DC-Ohio)

Yes, a second checker + fan loses your market. If you miss, you're at about 45%. Hit + anchor or rehit keeps the market, I think, but it could be close (this is all for money). Perhaps not a completely correct double but I would spin it anyway since people drop these too often and this is a pretty good bluff opportunity.

Blue's takepoint: drop: -2, -5 for 75%, take and win: 100%, take and lose: -2, -4 for 67%. So he risks 8% to gain 25%, or slightly better than 3-to-1 odds on the take. Close to money. Against a human I would certainly double this, against GNU I would spend some more time trying to figure out the correct cube action. Unfortunately this looks pretty complicated (I guess I would just try to estimate on 0-ply analysis), so I would probably make the play I would against a human.

D/T.

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