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BGonline.org Forums
Am I close yet?
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Am I close yet? (DC-Ohio)
Date: Friday, 10 August 2007, at 6:28 p.m.
I wasn't sure if picking up the second checker + a fan would lose my market so I threw the cube...
In that case I definitely think you should have waited. If your best case scenario may be a take then hang on.
The scenario you describe happens (20/36)*(25/36) = 500/1296 = 5/13 = 38.5% of the time. If you miss completely (15/36, not counting 1-1 where you get another chance if opp doesn't roll an ace) you're very glad you didn't cube as you're behind. [Just to clarify, you're behind cubeless, IMO, so definitely behind if opp owns the cube. If you still own the cube you may be a slight fav.] If you hit and opp anchors then you're ahead but opp still has a take (I'm pretty sure). But at least then you don't mind having cubed compared to the wiff scenario.
Note that as you stand you're not in a great position to spring a trap (if opp anchors) since you don't have good outfield distribution for the trap play. (E.g. you would much rather the checker on the 8-point be back at least five pips.)
The big question (and you've already m/l said this) is how big of a market loser is hit+fan? Closing out two is a pretty good sized market loser (I'm thinking 85::15 cubeless) but there is still SOME work to do after hit+fan if you've already cubed.
The little question is: if you hit but opp anchors, would you then even have a cube (assuming you still owned it)? You're definitely the cubeless favorite but it might still be worth hanging onto the cube at that point since volatility will then be pretty low. (Note I'm assuming this won't be a cash, which I'm pretty sure it's not. Otherwise it doesn't make sense to even ask.)
My bottom line is although I'm pretty sure hit+fan is a market loser, I don't think it's a big enough market loser to trigger an immediate cubeturn. I wait.
One other thing always worth mentioning is the probability of opp passing. If an experienced player -- very unlikely -- but otherwise there is more vig for sending it over now. Interesting here is that a rank beginner would think s/he's a favorite! So the person who would drop has to know enough about primes, closeouts, etc. to fear those but not experienced/knowledgeable to realize s/he actually IS the favorite.
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