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1-1 play at -9,-5

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 11 August 2007, at 2:20 a.m.

In Response To: 1-1 play at -9,-5 (Chuck Bower)

Q: Hit? A: Yes.

Q: Lift? A: No.

Q: 11/9 or 18/17(2)? A: With 18/17(2), Blue has 14 3's and 4 8's to cover, for a total of 18 covers next roll. With 11/9, he has 14 3's, 14 6's, and 1 55, for a total of 29 covers next roll. OTOH, he gives up 35 and 36 as double hitters and turns 45 from a mediocre roll into a great roll. That's 6 pretty powerful shots for the expense of 11 covers on the next roll, if I counted right. While it seems somewhat close to me, covering would be good, but it isn't as good as it would be if Blue weren't playing behind White's anchor. The 36 35 and 45 shots are big swings, though. Not to mention that the blot stays in double direct range if White just rolls a 3 and Blue dances.

Verdict: 13/11* 18/17(2).

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