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For those saying no lift

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 11 August 2007, at 3:34 a.m.

In Response To: For those saying no lift (Stick)

Ur right Stick. Lifting should be discussed so here's my 2 cents worth. A good way to decide whether or not to make a risky play (such as leaving the 3-point slotted here) is to compare the loss when the risky play fails with the gain when it works. If the loss outweighs the gain, play safe. If the gain outweighs the loss, make the bold play. So let's look at the "loss" side. How much extra do you lose by being hit when White rolls a 3? 3s are pretty good rolls for White anyway. If you lift with, say 13-11x 6-5 3-2 and White rolls a 3, who's winning the game? I think pretty clearly White is. He's got a better quality inner board and you've got a somewhat awkward position with quite a few bad rolls possible on your next shake. You'll probably have to leave quite a few flies and/or a direct shot sometime down the road even if you play safe now. So the loss from being hit with a 3 isn't huge -- it just turns you from being an underdog in the game into being an even bigger underdog. How much bigger? I would guess that you gammon-adjusted winning chances go down by around 15% (i.e. if you're 35% after lift and White rolls a 3, being hit makes you around 20%). There are 11 hits so the total risk is around 165%.

How about the gain when White fails to hit? There are 25 such missing numbers and if they, on average, increase your gammon-adjusted winning chances by around 7% each then the gain when White misses the 3 will outweigh the loss from when he hits. Can we get to the magical 165% gain figure here? I think so. We certainly gain a lot on the 16 dances, probably over 10% per roll, I would guess. Plus we net a few extra wins when White gets a 4 but we cover and get a 5-point board.

Another reason to keep the 3-point slotted is the score. We can recube a lot earlier than normal with a gammon threat and although the gammon is a long way off in this position it's a lot more likely with a 5-point board than a 4-pointer with an unfillable gap.

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