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BGonline.org Forums
Vivid demonstration of match score effect?
Posted By: Dave In Response To: Vivid demonstration of match score effect? (CooperedKen)
Date: Wednesday, 15 August 2007, at 12:47 p.m.
I assume the obvious move is making the ace point. Obvious because I think our backgammon brains are trained to search out opportunities to make inner points especially ones that close out the board. I would imagine that doing so would also result in a few more wins. If you run one of the back checkers there is a chance you'll get hit and hit back. In that case having your board closed gives you a few more wins because if your ace point is open there is a small chance that white will roll the magical 1-6, keep running, avoid your checkers and win (as opposed to the slightly less likely event of waiting on the bar for you to leave a blot, then hit and run, and squeeze out a win with you having born off several checkers). Summary, keeping the anchor results in a few more wins (but just a few).
However, as everyone has pointed out, with the anchor you have 8 crossovers to white's 12 checkers. This is good for you, but if white bears off 1 or 2 then it is down to 11-8 or 10-8. Now things get dicey, doubles from your opponent or some low rolls for you (low rolls don't hurt white as much because of white's crunched board) and that count swings in favor of white, thus increasing the chance of a gammon.
In the end, the few more wins you get by keeping the anchor are less than the gammons you give up by not running. And giving up a gammon in a match to five with the cube at 2 is a huge loss.
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