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RO report

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 18 August 2007, at 4:26 p.m.

In Response To: Play this! (Chuck Bower)

Turns out to be one of those positions where you can't err too badly. Note in particular the tradeoffs between wins and gammon losses for stay back on the 23-point plays compared to the 23/20 plays. (1296 trials and I don't want to waste time extending. If you group the two stay back plays and the two advanced plays then you get a 2.4 j.s.d. significance that staying back is the better plan. As far as which stay back play is better, this rollout is too short to separate.)

16/7, 6/3: -0.5894(0.0061)[0], 29.38% wins; 29.58% G-losses.

13/7(2): -0.5937(0.0061)[-0.0043], 28.79% wins; 28.26% G-losses.

23/20, 16/7: -0.6021(0.0051)[-0.0127], 24.77% wins; 20.86% G-losses.

23/20, 16/10, 6/3: -0.6093(0.0057)[-0.0199], 25.12% wins; 22.16% G-losses.

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