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BGonline.org Forums
Cube decision at -3 -7?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Cube decision at -3 -7? (Neil Robins)
Date: Saturday, 9 July 2011, at 1:52 p.m.
White's naive and gammonless 2-cube takepoint (if he just takes and never recubes) is approx 27% ATS. The 2-cube g values favor the trailer by around 60% to 32%. If the trailer takes and auto recubes next shake, his takepoint becomes about 32% less 100% of his gammon chances. The leader's 4-cube takepoint ATS is about 29% plus 100% of trailer's g's.
I think Blue's g chances are in the low 20s and White's are around 8% (Blue does have 2 blots and still has to clear the 16-pt). These g's raise White's 2-cube takepoint from 27% to around 29%.
Now we need to deduct for cube vig. I'll guess that the trailer will have, on average, around a 10% gammon chance when he redoubles so the leader's 4-cube takepoint will be around 39%. This 10% figure is probably too high but I'd want to be cautious about doubling as the leader ATS, so I'd tend to shade my estimates in favor of the trailer. Cube vig is usually worth about 70% of the product of the taker's gammon-adjusted 2-cube takepoint (29% here) and the other side's 4-cube gammonless takepoint (29% here), but here I'll use the gammon-adjusted 39% figure instead. 29% x 39% is ~ 8.3% which means that needs approx 20.7% cubeless winning chances to take the cube.
Can White win this often? Blue has 26 covers but they're not all equally good since 9 of these leave a direct shot on the mid. How about the other 10 numbers? They're not all bad since 66 and 33 make a 5-prime and 63 at least clears the 16-point. Estimating wins and losses in these categories is, IMO, pretty difficult. My guesstimate is that White's cubeless chances are around 24%, so it looks like a take to me.
Should Blue double? I think so. There are lots of big market-losing sequences on tap and White's take is not at all clear.
Could be wrong but D/T looks right to me.
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