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Rollout: A position for Leo Bueno

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 2 December 2011, at 2:56 p.m.

In Response To: A position for Leo Bueno (Timothy Chow)

I played 24/22 6/5 here and was surprised when the bots initially said it was a mistake, preferring 6/5 6/4. They change their minds upon rollout, though, as shown below. If White rolls something that makes her 3pt without breaking her 7pt, then life sucks for Blue in any case, so 24/22 really loses a lot only on 41 43 64 but gains a lot in most other cases.

Note that this is a case where GNU 4-ply's play is declared a whopper by a rollout, rather than a play that GNU 4-ply declares to be a whopper but is vindicated by a rollout. I'm not sure which one Leo wanted. I have more examples of the latter than of the former.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 99
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BAADCAbB-----a-bcbc-bA-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/22 6/5eq: -0.642
Player:
Opponent:		 20.73% (G:4.51% B:0.24%)
79.27% (G:17.15% B:0.22%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.650...-0.634)
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.738 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		 14.16% (G:1.40% B:0.05%)
85.84% (G:7.45% B:0.10%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.745...-0.731)
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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