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Don't bother--Here is the answer and MCG analysis

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Friday, 28 September 2012, at 4:32 p.m.

In Response To: Don't bother--you won't figure this one out (Phil Simborg)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 9 point match pip: 114 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBcBABB-a---bcb-bbAA---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	21/18 8/6	eq: -0.662
	Player: Opponent: 33.69% (G:11.10% B:0.34%) 66.31% (G:20.20% B:1.35%) Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.686...-0.637) - [95.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout2	21/18 9/7	eq: -0.688 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 32.40% (G:9.42% B:0.29%) 67.60% (G:16.99% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.709...-0.667) - [5.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds
3.	Rollout3	9/7 9/6	eq: -0.709 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 31.86% (G:8.98% B:0.20%) 68.14% (G:14.10% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.728...-0.690) - [0.1%] Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds
4.	4-ply	7/2	eq: -0.681 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 31.47% (G:7.66% B:0.14%) 68.53% (G:15.10% B:0.51%)
5.	2-ply	8/6 7/4	eq: -0.774 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 29.81% (G:7.22% B:0.16%) 70.19% (G:15.17% B:0.55%)
1 918 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 917 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 915 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

I don't think I would have even seen play A. I'm sure I would have made play B or C, probably play B.  21/18 makes a lot of sense. He's stripped outside so hitting loose leaves tons of returns, you don't want to get pointed on on the 4 point, you are running out of time and need to get out of the prime, and making the 18 point is a great anchor to have. 8/6 is a lot harder to see but one of the keys is that once you play 21/18 the 4 doesn't play for him--3s and 2s are the numbers he needs to hit loose, actually, and a 4 is a total brick. So giving him a 4 to play is really undesirable.  Getting hit is not the worst thing in the world since you can come back and make an anchor (especially the 18 point), but you don't really want to get hit, especially double hit. Note that after 9/7, 43, 42, and 41 double hit, and 33 and 32 make a solid 5-prime (˜9 numbers). After 8/6, 32, 21, 31, 33, and 22 double hit (˜8 numbers). So even though you leave more blots you get double hit about the same amount of the time.  That makes at least some amount of sense to me. I don't understand this position as well as I did the previous one, but the combination of really wanting to make the 18 and escape from the prime and 4s being such a bad roll can lead you to that play.  Best,  Matt

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here are Matt's excellent comments:

I don't think I would have even seen play A. I'm sure I would have made play B or C, probably play B.

21/18 makes a lot of sense. He's stripped outside so hitting loose leaves tons of returns, you don't want to get pointed on on the 4 point, you are running out of time and need to get out of the prime, and making the 18 point is a great anchor to have. 8/6 is a lot harder to see but one of the keys is that once you play 21/18 the 4 doesn't play for him--3s and 2s are the numbers he needs to hit loose, actually, and a 4 is a total brick. So giving him a 4 to play is really undesirable.

Getting hit is not the worst thing in the world since you can come back and make an anchor (especially the 18 point), but you don't really want to get hit, especially double hit. Note that after 9/7, 43, 42, and 41 double hit, and 33 and 32 make a solid 5-prime (~9 numbers). After 8/6, 32, 21, 31, 33, and 22 double hit (~8 numbers). So even though you leave more blots you get double hit about the same amount of the time.

That makes at least some amount of sense to me. I don't understand this position as well as I did the previous one, but the combination of really wanting to make the 18 and escape from the prime and 4s being such a bad roll can lead you to that play.

Messages In This Thread

• Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
  Phil Simborg -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 1:47 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 2:21 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 2:42 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    ah_clem -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 3:06 p.m.
  • Don't bother--you won't figure this one out
    Sam Pottle -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 3:57 p.m.
  • Don't bother--Here is the answer and MCG analysis
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 4:32 p.m.
    • Don't bother--Longer RO
      eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 5:03 p.m.
      • Don't bother--Longer RO
        Stick -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 7:16 p.m.
        • Don't bother--Longer RO
          eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 6:13 p.m.
          • Don't bother--Longer RO
            Stick -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 6:36 p.m.
          • Don't bother--Longer RO
            Neil Robins -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 7:03 a.m.
          • Don't bother--Longer RO - Gnubg RO
            Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 1 October 2012, at 4:21 a.m.
          • Separate XG Rollouts
            Stick -- Tuesday, 2 October 2012, at 8:15 a.m.
    • Don't bother--Here is the answer and MCG analysis
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 September 2012, at 11:35 p.m.