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Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 21 April 2008, at 12:15 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Petter Bengtsson)

Petter asked for an example of a double/beaver.

Money Game. Blue on roll.

White270


 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

5O5O4O '3X3X3X3X3X1O ' '

Blue37

Position ID: AIC7uwPf94AAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Blue rolls a 6 on 11/36 rolls and wins a gammon, otherwise gets doubled out.

ND -> Blue wins 11-25 = -14 points in 36 games -> equity -0.388

DT -> Blue wins 11*4 - 25-2 = -6 points in 36 games -> equity -0.166

DB -> Blue wins 11*8 - 25*4 = -12 points in 36 games -> equity -0.332


Gnubg is no help here, since Gnubg 2-ply thinks Blue's double is a take and White's redouble is a beaver.

Blue's double:


Annotation

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.551
0.531 0.523 0.000 - 0.469 0.034 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.781
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.219)
3. No double +0.135 ( -0.647)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +1.214
0.775 0.665 0.001 - 0.225 0.001 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +2.275 ( +1.275)
3. No double +0.894 ( -0.106)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

White's redouble:


Annotation
Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity -0.142
0.567 0.011 0.000 - 0.433 0.285 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.055
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.945)
3. Double, take -0.596 ( -0.651)
Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (40.8%)

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.343
0.754 0.073 0.002 - 0.246 0.238 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.640
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.360)
3. Double, take +0.547 ( -0.093)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (20.5%)

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