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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 17 June 2017, at 3:46 a.m.

In Response To: Boring 4a5a holding game cube (Timothy Chow)

As neilkaz explained, at this score, the 5a player has to be more cautious about taking holding-game cubes because of the poor recube vig. For money, this position is a borderline D/ND, in part because White's straggler gives her extra winning chances. However, ATS Blue's gammon value is elevated and the straggler gives Blue some extra gammon wins, largely nullifying White's extra wins. According to the rollout this is a big pass ATS.





White is Player 1

score: 2
pip: 151
7 point match
pip: 125
score: 3

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a--BbCBC-B-cB-A-aabc-b---:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.47% (G:8.88% B:0.31%) 74.42% (G:8.10% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.53% (G:3.75% B:0.10%) 25.58% (G:3.84% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.551 +1.352
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.966 (-0.034)±0.007 (+0.959..+0.974)
Double/Take:+1.098 (+0.098)±0.015 (+1.083..+1.113)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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