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Theoretical question: correct double below doubling point

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Wednesday, 11 October 2017, at 5:02 p.m.

There was some discussion on the Italian forum about the following position:





White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 67
11 point match
pip: 82
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBCBB-----a-----Bcbcbd--:0:0:1:00:4:9:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.57% (G:1.60% B:0.02%) 59.64% (G:1.53% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.43% (G:0.27% B:0.00%) 40.36% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.204 +0.158
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.057 (-0.101)
Double/Take:+0.158
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.842)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The position is a correct initial double, by a big margin, even though GWC are <60% and the minimum doubling point is supposed to be 62.44%.

The discussion included a mention to Gerard's paradox, since after no double and miss, white has a correct initial double that must be taken. However, I am not convinced this is the main factor.

The discussion also mentioned blue's gammons and gammon price lowering the doubling point, but again it does not seem to be the main factor since even removing a white checker from his 2-point, therefore barring gammon, the position remains a correct small initial double with only 57% GWC.

Can you help me to explain it?

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