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MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 3 May 2019, at 7:17 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ** **ROLLOUT RESULTS** (Justin Nowell)

Below there are five pairs of rollouts. You can view them side by side, if your window is much-y wide.

In each pair, the first (left-hand) rollout was done by Justin, for his (original) Mochy position. The second (right-hand) rollout was done by me, for the parallel "Muchy" position. My caption identifies the single change between the two positions.

At the end of my caption, the swing in margin between the top play of the Mochy (original) play and the Muchy (variant) position, is given. For example, 22/20 10/5 is –.080 in Mochy position #1, and 22/17 10/8 is –.010 in Muchy position #1, for a swing of .090.

If you are able to honestly admit to yourself when you would have made the same play OTB in both contrasting positions, it is an opportunity for a breakthrough.

MOCHY (original) Position #1

		White is Sebastian Wilkinson score: 0 pip: 150 7 point match pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Kazuki Yokota
XGID=--BaBbCB-----C-abb-cbbBA--:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 52

1.	Rollout1	22/17 10/8	eq: +0.900
	Player: Opponent: 71.65% (G:15.61% B:0.54%) 28.35% (G:4.64% B:0.16%) Conf.: � 0.011 (+0.889...+0.911) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/15	eq: +0.829 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 69.52% (G:17.15% B:0.70%) 30.48% (G:6.07% B:0.36%) Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.816...+0.843) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/20 10/5	eq: +0.820 (-0.080)
	Player: Opponent: 69.64% (G:15.51% B:0.60%) 30.36% (G:5.37% B:0.28%) Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.807...+0.833) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
4.	XG Roller++	22/17 6/4	eq: +0.781 (-0.120)
	Player: Opponent: 68.61% (G:16.54% B:0.69%) 31.39% (G:6.26% B:0.19%)
5.	XG Roller++	10/5 6/4	eq: +0.676 (-0.224)
	Player: Opponent: 66.29% (G:16.56% B:0.64%) 33.71% (G:6.69% B:0.20%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #1

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 7 point match pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBC-BBA-d-----bcBbAb--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:7:10
White's 23pt blot is moved to her 13pt, Swing of .090

1.	Rollout1	22/20 10/5	eq: +0.643
	Player: Opponent: 66.35% (G:11.70% B:0.42%) 33.65% (G:5.26% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.636...+0.649) - [98.8%] Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/17 10/8	eq: +0.632 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 65.89% (G:12.63% B:0.45%) 34.11% (G:5.69% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.626...+0.639) - [1.2%] Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
3.	Rollout1	22/15	eq: +0.617 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 65.62% (G:12.39% B:0.47%) 34.38% (G:5.96% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.611...+0.624) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
4.	Rollout2	22/17 6/4	eq: +0.554 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 63.82% (G:12.91% B:0.55%) 36.18% (G:6.97% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.540...+0.567) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 27 seconds
5.	Rollout2	10/5 6/4	eq: +0.548 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 63.45% (G:14.01% B:0.53%) 36.55% (G:7.10% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.536...+0.561) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 43 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40310402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40310402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #2

		White is Sebastian Wilkinson score: 2 pip: 155 7 point match pip: 157 score: 2 Blue is Kazuki Yokota
XGID=aA-a--D-C--AcD--ad-eA--A--:0:0:-1:54:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 9/5*	eq: +0.147
	Player: Opponent: 53.08% (G:15.33% B:0.78%) 46.92% (G:12.40% B:0.49%) Conf.: � 0.014 (+0.134...+0.161) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/9	eq: +0.073 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 52.35% (G:13.73% B:0.72%) 47.65% (G:13.64% B:0.44%) Conf.: � 0.016 (+0.057...+0.089) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/16	eq: -0.015 (-0.163)
	Player: Opponent: 50.34% (G:12.45% B:0.58%) 49.66% (G:14.50% B:0.54%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/20 6/2*	eq: -0.021 (-0.168)
	Player: Opponent: 49.34% (G:13.64% B:0.65%) 50.66% (G:13.84% B:0.58%)
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 9/4	eq: -0.040 (-0.187)
	Player: Opponent: 49.34% (G:12.78% B:0.54%) 50.66% (G:14.39% B:0.48%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #2

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 167 7 point match pip: 157 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a--aE-DA--eCa--c-d--A--A:0:0:1:54:2:2:0:7:10
White's 1pt blot is moved to her 13pt, Swing of .088

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/9	eq: +0.081
	Player: Opponent: 51.76% (G:14.76% B:0.73%) 48.24% (G:11.98% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.073...+0.088) - [99.5%] Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 9/5*	eq: +0.067 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 50.89% (G:14.67% B:0.74%) 49.11% (G:11.81% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.059...+0.074) - [0.5%] Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40848651 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #3

		White is Kazuki Yokota score: 2 pip: 120 7 point match pip: 115 score: 2 Blue is Sebastian Wilkinson
XGID=-BB-bCB-B---bB---b-cBbbb--:0:0:1:65:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.042
	Player: Opponent: 48.69% (G:8.43% B:0.25%) 51.31% (G:6.80% B:0.23%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.050...-0.033) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.130 (-0.088)
	Player: Opponent: 46.86% (G:9.21% B:0.21%) 53.14% (G:12.40% B:0.34%) Conf.: � 0.010 (-0.139...-0.120) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/2	eq: -0.181 (-0.139)
	Player: Opponent: 44.72% (G:7.45% B:0.22%) 55.28% (G:8.40% B:0.23%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.190...-0.172) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds
4.	XG Roller++	20/15 20/14	eq: -0.389 (-0.348)
	Player: Opponent: 41.86% (G:6.57% B:0.18%) 58.14% (G:22.87% B:0.53%)
5.	XG Roller++	20/9	eq: -0.619 (-0.577)
	Player: Opponent: 38.25% (G:10.73% B:0.36%) 61.75% (G:27.43% B:0.62%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #3

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 120 7 point match pip: 120 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AB-bCC-B---bB---b-cBbbb--:0:0:1:65:2:2:0:7:10
A Blue 1pt checker is moved to his 6pt, Swing of .095

1.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.086
	Player: Opponent: 47.52% (G:8.85% B:0.18%) 52.48% (G:10.48% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.088...-0.083) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.093 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 47.42% (G:6.96% B:0.18%) 52.58% (G:6.31% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.095...-0.090) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79165659 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Position #4

		White is Kazuki Yokota score: 2 pip: 142 7 point match pip: 79 score: 2 Blue is Sebastian Wilkinson
XGID=aCCBbCb----AAB-----b-ccb--:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.94% (G:29.34% B:0.15%)	70.25% (G:29.67% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.06% (G:4.09% B:0.16%)	29.75% (G:4.07% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.629	+1.416
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.842 (-0.158)	�0.011 (+0.831..+0.852)
Double/Take:	+1.142 (+0.142)	�0.017 (+1.126..+1.159)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds

MUCHY (variant) Position #4

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 145 7 point match pip: 79 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCCBbCb----AAB-----c-cbb--:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10
White's 3pt spare is moved to her 6pt, Swing of .179

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.90% (G:29.37% B:0.16%)	67.25% (G:29.33% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.10% (G:5.13% B:0.20%)	32.75% (G:5.12% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.559	+1.266
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.761 (-0.202)	±0.006 (+0.756..+0.767)
Double/Take:	+0.963	±0.009 (+0.954..+0.972)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.037)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40310402 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 50 minutes 38 seconds

If White's spares are on her 3pt and 6pt (a 2-pip adjustment from Mochy position #4, or a 1-pip adjustment from Muchy position #4), it is a borderline take (.997, 5k rollout not shown).

MOCHY (original) Position #5

		White is Sebastian Wilkinson score: 6 pip: 160 7 point match Crawford pip: 124 score: 2 Blue is Kazuki Yokota
XGID=----BBBaC---bB-bAbbdB-b-A-:0:0:-1:44:6:2:1:7:10
Blue to play 44

1.	Rollout1	18/10 8/4(2)	eq: +0.442
	Player: Opponent: 71.03% (G:21.23% B:0.38%) 28.97% (G:4.33% B:0.29%) Conf.: � 0.004 (+0.438...+0.446) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/10 6/2(2)	eq: +0.409 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 69.41% (G:19.65% B:0.43%) 30.59% (G:3.69% B:0.34%) Conf.: � 0.005 (+0.404...+0.413) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	18/10 13/9*(2)	eq: +0.369 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 67.06% (G:25.55% B:0.64%) 32.94% (G:4.74% B:0.34%) Conf.: � 0.005 (+0.364...+0.374) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
4.	XG Roller++	13/9*(2) 8/4(2)	eq: +0.264 (-0.178)
	Player: Opponent: 61.65% (G:25.09% B:0.95%) 38.35% (G:6.62% B:0.25%)
5.	XG Roller++	13/9*(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.228 (-0.214)
	Player: Opponent: 59.99% (G:22.88% B:0.92%) 40.01% (G:8.27% B:0.34%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Position #5

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 160 7 point match Crawford pip: 142 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-bD-BaB-bB--BcAbbb----:0:0:1:44:2:6:1:7:10
Blue has his 16pt instead of 7pt, Swing of .117

1.	Rollout1	18/10 13/9*(2)	eq: +0.218
	Player: Opponent: 59.94% (G:17.52% B:0.51%) 40.06% (G:7.90% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.216...+0.221) - [100.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 34 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/10 8/4(2)	eq: +0.175 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 57.94% (G:13.93% B:0.45%) 42.06% (G:8.62% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.172...+0.177) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 14 seconds
3.	Rollout1	18/10 6/2(2)	eq: +0.162 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 57.26% (G:14.44% B:0.49%) 42.74% (G:10.21% B:0.89%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.160...+0.165) - [0.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 29 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/9*(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.125 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 54.98% (G:20.00% B:0.87%) 45.02% (G:10.83% B:1.11%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.119...+0.131) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/9*(2) 8/4(2)	eq: +0.121 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 54.89% (G:19.66% B:0.72%) 45.11% (G:9.77% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.116...+0.127) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 10 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40848651 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40848651 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MOCHY (original) Bonus Position

		White is Kazuki Yokota score: 6 pip: 57 7 point match pip: 78 score: 3 Blue is Sebastian Wilkinson
XGID=-BAbCCC-B----A----------m-:1:-1:1:41:3:6:0:7:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	8/7 6/2	eq: +1.227
	Player: Opponent: 83.22% (G:26.82% B:1.01%) 16.78% (G:1.31% B:0.02%) Conf.: � 0.005 (+1.222...+1.232) - [100.0%] Duration: 13.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/12 6/2	eq: +1.123 (-0.104)
	Player: Opponent: 84.72% (G:20.42% B:0.64%) 15.28% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) Conf.: � 0.004 (+1.119...+1.127) - [0.0%] Duration: 8.5 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/7 8/4	eq: +1.121 (-0.106)
	Player: Opponent: 81.58% (G:23.35% B:0.79%) 18.42% (G:1.07% B:0.01%) Conf.: � 0.005 (+1.117...+1.126) - [0.0%] Duration: 14.2 seconds
4.	Rollout1	6/2 5/4	eq: +1.093 (-0.134)
	Player: Opponent: 84.12% (G:19.56% B:0.62%) 15.88% (G:0.47% B:0.01%) Conf.: � 0.004 (+1.088...+1.097) - [0.0%] Duration: 9.0 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/12 8/4	eq: +1.091 (-0.137)
	Player: Opponent: 80.85% (G:22.57% B:0.84%) 19.15% (G:1.06% B:0.00%) Conf.: � 0.005 (+1.085...+1.096) - [0.0%] Duration: 13.8 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 54281668 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

MUCHY (variant) Bonus Position

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 57 7 point match pip: 78 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BAbCCC-B----A----------m-:1:-1:1:41:5:6:0:7:10
Score changed from 4p to 2p, Swing of .156

1.	Rollout1	13/12 6/2	eq: +0.734
	Player: Opponent: 86.69% (G:13.00% B:0.20%) 13.31% (G:0.31% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.733...+0.735) - [100.0%] Duration: 43.0 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2 5/4	eq: +0.719 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 85.93% (G:12.58% B:0.17%) 14.07% (G:0.35% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.717...+0.720) - [0.0%] Duration: 42.7 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: +0.718 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 85.91% (G:8.73% B:0.11%) 14.09% (G:0.24% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.717...+0.719) - [0.0%] Duration: 42.7 seconds
4.	Rollout2	6/1	eq: +0.699 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 84.95% (G:11.87% B:0.20%) 15.05% (G:0.61% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.697...+0.701) - [0.0%] Duration: 19.9 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/12 5/1	eq: +0.688 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 84.42% (G:11.20% B:0.15%) 15.58% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.686...+0.691) - [0.0%] Duration: 21.2 seconds
6.	Rollout2	8/7 6/2	eq: +0.682 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 84.12% (G:18.78% B:0.32%) 15.88% (G:1.47% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.680...+0.685) - [0.0%] Duration: 28.3 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79165659 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79165659 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
  Justin Nowell -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 3:47 a.m.
  • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:13 a.m.
    • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:58 p.m.
  • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:35 a.m.
  • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    Stick -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 8:54 a.m.
    • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
      Stick -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 10:18 p.m.
  • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 30 April 2019, at 6:57 p.m.
  • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ**
    higonefive -- Wednesday, 1 May 2019, at 12:18 p.m.
  • Mochy Challenge Day 1 **QUIZ** **ROLLOUT RESULTS**
    Justin Nowell -- Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 12:32 a.m.
    • Bonus Question Rollout
      Stick -- Thursday, 2 May 2019, at 3:51 a.m.
    • MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 3 May 2019, at 7:17 a.m.
      • MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
        Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 3 May 2019, at 7:53 a.m.
        • MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 4 May 2019, at 3:13 a.m.
          • MOCHY and MUCHY Day 1 positions **CONTRASTING ROLLOUTS**
            Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 4 May 2019, at 7:44 a.m.
            • Trap play breakeven
              Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 5 May 2019, at 12:16 a.m.
              • Trap play breakeven
                Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 5 May 2019, at 5:49 a.m.