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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 24 February 2007, at 7:24 a.m.

In Response To: Game of the week (Stick)

I suspect the vast majority of people would anchor up here (though I've been wrong before) & OTB Senkiewicz actually made the hitting play. It's almost reflexive to anchor up here I think but the 3 anchor is never a bargain in my mind. By anchoring up you leave Blue free to do everything next turn, and his numbers are so well diversified he is doing something very good next turn, either making his own 4 or 5 pt or making your 5 pt. It's true the hit strips the 8 & will most likely be hit back but it's the lesser of the two evils. It keeps your game plan open and Blue off balance. You may even get lucky and have Blue roll 6-X from the bar and they really don't play that well.

168
168
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/23 8/5* -0.079
0.9% 14.1% 48.2% 51.8% 16.4% 0.9%
Live cube rollout: -0.085
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.057 ±0.015, - live cube: -0.085 ±0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 32989 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R bar/22 24/22 -0.136 (-0.057)
0.6% 10.4% 46.7% 53.3% 14.0% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: -0.156
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.100 ±0.012, - live cube: -0.156 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 42156 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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