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4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 4:08 a.m.

In Response To: 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Confirming what everyone seems to know: it is a drop, by the smallest of margins. This is the best 6-X-55A-F position because Blue's only shot, 64, is duplicated, so 63 and 64 are both clear drops.

This actually came up in a chou recently. The box doubled, everyone quickly passed, so did I, since I knew it was a drop. About 2-3 minutes later I got to thinking. Although the box was not a particularly weak player I'm rather certain I could have made up .0128 of equity against him in this position--although he may handle the blitz well enough when I fan, he will often botch it when I anchor. I could have made a small profit by taking a bunch of extras. In general taking a ton of extras is a bad idea in positions where you both a) get gammoned a lot and b) are certain it's a drop, but I think it would have been the profitable play here.

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	160
Blue	147
Position ID: 4HPkQUAzTvABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6253
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0128	+0.0128
3.	No double	+0.8085	-0.1915
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6560 0.3811 0.0150 - 0.3440 0.0794 0.0035 +0.6253 +0.8085 Standard error 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 0.0007 0.0019 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6637 0.3871 0.0140 - 0.3363 0.0773 0.0038 +1.2953 +1.0128 Standard error 0.0003 0.0004 0.0002 - 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0018 0.0027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
32186 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 835515257 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 2:02 a.m.
  • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
    Keene -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 2:06 a.m.
  • 62S-55A-F-C?
    Stick -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 8:59 a.m.
    • 62S-55A-F-C?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 5:40 p.m.
      • 62S-55A-F-C?
        pontiac -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 7:52 p.m.
        • 62S-55A-F-C?
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 8:16 p.m.
          • 62S-55A-F-C?
            6425 -- Monday, 13 October 2008, at 5:52 p.m.
  • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
    misja -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 11:49 a.m.
  • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
    pontiac -- Sunday, 12 October 2008, at 1:40 p.m.
  • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 13 October 2008, at 1:39 a.m.
  • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 4:08 a.m.
    • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
      misja -- Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 11:05 a.m.
      • 4th roll: 62S 55A, dance, cube?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 9:28 p.m.