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LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:45 a.m.

In Response To: LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

This one took awhile to roll out and I lost the results a couple times, go figure. Rollouts are TCTC since I lost the earlier data but the gist of it is that 13/7 is marginally correct and White does not have a double after either play.

Here's what happened OTB:

Matt: plays 13/7
Stick: That's a little rich.
Matt: Yeah, it's a little rich but this plays 8/2 is a little horrible.
Stick: It's a little bit horrible but at least it dupes the aces and it ain't rich. I really don't like the other one. Maybe I'm playing like a sissy tonight...
Matt: plays 13/7
Stick: And this is just....ugh. That's a Mary Hickey wrong play. That's why I don't let Mary roll all the time.
Matt: Fine, fine plays 8/2, picks up dice
Kit: laughing That's too bad, the other play would have got you the cube.
Stick & Tami in unison: I know!
Kit: I guess we have to wait.

Oh good, so in retrospect, not only did we misplay the checker play, but we also missed drawing an incorrect cube, so we lost like .05 or more here.

Stick, after we passed the cube here: "I hope we play like a 9 error rate, like 'Stick is so bad'"

We played a 2.55 for the match but GNU 2-ply says our ER for money would have been a 45 in this game, since we only got one move right. Snowie is a bit more generous and gives us a 42.

The score (after 3 games) is: Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones 2, Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice 3 (match to 7 points)

Move number 5: Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice to play 62

Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones	150
Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice	152
Position ID: mPOYASHg8+ADQA Match ID: cAnrACAAGAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice moves bar/23 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/23 13/7	-0.6372
			0.3577 0.0846 0.0091 - 0.6423 0.1923 0.0072 -0.4275 -0.6372 0.0014 0.0018 0.0016 - 0.0014 0.0017 0.0009 0.0044 0.0097
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1760 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805984565 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	??	R	bar/23 8/2	-0.6456 ( -0.0084)
			0.3665 0.0878 0.0111 - 0.6335 0.2256 0.0062 -0.4402 -0.6456 0.0013 0.0018 0.0019 - 0.0013 0.0020 0.0004 0.0042 0.0097
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1757 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805984565 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 3 games) is: Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones 2, Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice 3 (match to 7 points)

Move number 6: Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones on roll, cube decision?

Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones	150
Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice	144
Position ID: 4OvBAxCY85gBIQ Match ID: MAHgACAAGAAA

• Kit Woolsey-Tami Jones doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4214	(Money: +0.3890)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.6286
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3714
3.	Double, take	+0.5888	-0.0399
Proper cube action:		No double, take (9.7%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6410 0.1916 0.0094 - 0.3590 0.0832 0.0109 +0.4214 +0.6286 Standard error 0.0022 0.0026 0.0017 - 0.0022 0.0022 0.0028 0.0067 0.0144 Player Matt Cohn-Geier-Stick Rice owns 2-cube 0.6439 0.1975 0.0081 - 0.3561 0.0872 0.0137 +0.8631 +0.5888 Standard error 0.0027 0.0035 0.0027 - 0.0027 0.0033 0.0033 0.0167 0.0208
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
745 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805984565 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 8:32 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4
    Martin -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 8:57 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4
    pontiac -- Sunday, 23 November 2008, at 10:03 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 2:09 a.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4
    Havard Raddum -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 8:51 a.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4
    neilkaz -- Monday, 24 November 2008, at 7:51 p.m.
  • Rollout Result and Comment
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 25 November 2008, at 1:59 a.m.
    • Rollout Result and Comment
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 November 2008, at 2:27 a.m.
      • Rollout Result and Comment
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 25 November 2008, at 7:29 p.m.
  • LV Doubles Round #3 Play #4 ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 26 November 2008, at 5:45 a.m.